Brexit

East meets East: East Anglia to East Asia (via Europe)

When I first moved to Norwich, just under two years’ ago, my new bookkeeper unnerved me by saying “we don’t do euros in Norfolk”. A third of my turnover is in euros, so I wondered whether I had chosen the best location for my business.

It’s true that there aren’t that many Japanese companies – my target customer group – locally in East Anglia either. However, those that are here reflect the regional strengths in food processing and energy. Mizkan owns Branston Pickle, which is made in a factory in Bury St Edmunds and Marubeni is the owner of Seajacks, a Great Yarmouth based offshore wind power engineering company. Although car companies such as Toyota and Nissan are probably the most famous Japanese investors in the UK, Norwich-based Lotus is owned by Proton, a Malaysian company.

More recently, Japanese insurance companies have been on the acquisition trail, and this has an East Anglia angle too, as the companies they have acquired have offices in the region and are keen to shift more personnel out of the expensive City of London. One such client, as well as asking me to do some training for their office in Chelmsford, Essex, also sent me to their branches in Zurich, Amsterdam and Brussels.

I decided to take the opportunity of the Belgium trip to visit Bruges, intrigued by its similarities to and influences on Norwich. Flemish weavers, masons and goldsmiths settled across East Anglia throughout the Middle Ages, when Norwich and Bruges were Hanseatic League outposts. Bruges, like Norwich, was a thriving river port, trading in locally made cloth. Like Norwich, Bruges was largely bypassed by the industrial revolution and trade declined after its river silted up.

Now Bruges is mainly a tourist destination as well as home to the College of Europe. With the EU referendum going on, it seemed an appropriate time to visit the place where Mrs Thatcher made her famous 1988 speech against further European integration, which inspired The Bruges Group, many of whose members are behind the current campaigns for Britain to leave the EU.

The Bruges Group flavour of Brexiteer sees exiting the European Union as a means of ending European political and regulatory interference. However, talking to people in Norwich, the argument that obviously most resonates is that of getting back control of the UK’s borders, and preventing further immigration, particularly from Europe.

Other former Hanseatic outposts on the UK’s east coast have not fared as well as Norwich. There are unemployment hotspots yet large numbers of Europeans come to the region to help with the harvesting and production of food. Recent polls show the region overall is in favour of Brexit.

So what will Japanese companies do if the UK does leave the EU? I expect that those that have already invested – either because the UK had a strength in a particular industry, or they wanted to access the UK market – will stay. But those who use the UK as a coordination base for the rest of Europe, may well consider relocating or shifting any further investment into continental Europe.

This is really bad news for my business, as my best clients are the European HR departments of the regional coordinating headquarters of Japanese companies. One such client integrated all their back offices functions a couple of years’ ago, which meant they shifted their HR back office to Turkey, managed by a team in Portugal, and I have not had any business from them since.

The common market and free movement of people over the past 40 years in Europe has brought about a more integrated structure for most multinationals. The UK has benefited from this by becoming the main host of European headquarter functions – headquarters which generate direct and indirect employment. This has made London an expensive place to operate, so jobs are moving east, not just to the east of the UK, but to countries like Poland. I am also now looking to recruit a consultant in Poland. Ironically, most of the candidates have had experience working in the UK.

One of my other Japanese clients has started shifting personnel from London to Amsterdam. London will continue to be the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) HQ and Amsterdam will be the European Union HQ. So maybe that’s the way to go for British businesses, if we do leave the EU.

I already have had some business in the Middle East, and was recently asked if I could find consultants in Morocco, Tunisia and South Africa. It’s something I could do whether or not the UK is in the EU, so ultimately, I think we British businesspeople should be asking ourselves, is it really worth going through all the uncertainty, cost and bad feeling of negotiating our way out and then re-negotiating our way back in to trade deals, to be pushed into doing something we should be doing anyway?

I visited Great Yarmouth (another former Hanseatic League outpost) recently, to see an excellent production of the Tempest at the Hippodrome. It was part of the Norfolk and Norwich Arts Festival – which benefits from EU funding. I noticed that most of the cafes were run by Portuguese immigrants and as the one we wanted to go to for lunch was fully booked, we ended up in a local pub.

Initially, the atmosphere and menu brought me back to when I was a child in the early 1970s, before we moved to Japan and the UK joined the European Union. The UK seemed to be in permanent decline – shabby, with awful food and if you wanted olive oil to cook something better at home, you had to buy it at a chemist.

However, it turned out the pub stocked good local cider and beer and the food was well cooked and promptly served. On the way back from the toilets (spotlessly clean) I realised that quietly and efficiently running the whole operation was the Thai wife of the British owner.

This article appears in “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” by Pernille Rudlin, available on Amazon as a paperback and ebook.

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Brexit is already priced in – the failure of British soft power

I’m on what has become an annual business trip this time of year, to Duesseldorf. Just before my flight out of London City Airport, I met with one of our Japanese corporate clients in the City, who told me that they are about to establish their European Union headquarters in the Netherlands. Brexit was not directly mentioned as the reason for this, more that “compliance and regulatory issues” made Amsterdam the preferred choice. The EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa HQ) will remain in London. The Amsterdam office will be beefed up and some of the regional functional people are being transferred there from London. This is precisely the sort of gradual drift to the Continent that I fear will follow an actual Brexit – and it is happening already.

Arriving at Duesseldorf airport, I was struck by the clear division at passport control between “EU Citizens/Burger” and “Other Nationalities”. An EU blue path (that made you feel it was a red carpet) took you to a completely separate set of passport officials. In UK airports, the different lanes are side by side, and it’s often quicker to go to the “all passports” queue than wait in the EU queue. There is no mention of us all being “citizens” either in British immigration control. Some Brits may find this willingness to treat us as equal citizens of Germany somewhat troubling from a historical perspective, but I felt rather flattered.

Then on to my hotel, with a huge array of channels including BBC World. But there was no signal for the BBC channel. So I ended up watching some fascinating documentaries on the cultivation and cooking of lotus roots, and Indonesia’s fad for J pop Wotagei dancing on NHK World instead. Japan/NL/Germany soft power 1, British soft power 0.

Why the refugee crisis might mean the end of the EU

When I recently asserted that Britain leaving the EU would result in many multinationals withdrawing their European headquarters from the UK, a British person of Greek origin claimed that the UK would be fine on its own. It would be better off without burdensome EU regulations enforced by a cabal, he said, and the UK is such an innovative country, companies would want to base themselves here whatever our European status.

Given the treatment of Greece by the European institutions recently, I suppose this view is not surprising. There have been many complaints in the UK too about too much European regulation. Often though, as in the case of an EU standard on the amount of noise a lawnmower can emit, these regulations were actually promoted by British officials because they benefited British manufacturers. For manufacturers in general, the comfort in setting up a factory anywhere in the EU is that by meeting these standards, their products will be approved to sell anywhere in the 28 countries of the EU.

If the UK were to leave the EU, it would no longer be able to influence these regulations, and yet would have to abide by them if it wanted to sell its products in its closest and biggest market. Fortunately, for British people like me who are pro-European, the new leader of the opposition Labour Party has just said that he would campaign to stay in the European Union in the forthcoming referendum (likely next year).

It is assumed that the Prime Minister David Cameron, in his negotiations with the EU member states, is trying to weaken the social charter of the European Union, which has brought about protection for employees in terms of working time, holidays, discrimination, etc. The Labour Party, as you can tell by the name, is strongly committed to supporting the rights of working people, so has decided to campaign for staying in the European Union, regardless of the deal Cameron reaches, by committing to reverse any social concessions gained, should Labour get back into power.

One of the key non-negotiables for the core European states such as France or Germany – which actually is one of the main reasons many British citizens oppose the European Union – is the free movement of people. To me, this is why the UK is as innovative as it is. There is plenty of evidence that diversity encourages innovation and London is without doubt one of the most diverse cities in Europe. If you locate your company in the London area, you can access an extraordinary range of nationalities, viewpoints and skills, all with English as the common language.

Unfortunately the current refugee crisis is weakening this commitment to the free movement of people and could even bring about the end of the European Union entirely. Instead of coming up with a coordinated solution, member countries are behaving like they have not remembered the lessons of the two World Wars we are currently commemorating.

This article originally appeared in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News on 14th October 2015 and also appears in Pernille Rudlin’s new book “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” – available as a paperback and Kindle ebook on Amazon.

France

The clampdown on non-EU immigration by the UK government has been causing plenty of concern amongst the Japanese business community for some time now. As we approach a general election in May 2015, the coalition government is under pressure to explain how it is going to meet its commitment to cut immigration to the UK to tens of thousands. The government can control non-EU immigration, but not the hundreds of thousands of immigrants who come from EU countries to the UK each year, because of the EU commitment to the principle of free movement of labour. This is why Japanese companies are finding it so hard to get visas for their Japanese expatriate staff.

If the UK tries to undermine this principle of the free movement of labour within Europe, the coalition government could even find themselves having to leave the EU, as Angela Merkel has stated. Pro Europeans and most businesspeople in the UK would rather further reforms were made to the EU, which address the causes of pan-European movements of people, but this would mean further harmonisation of business and labour regulations. Anti Europeans are antagonistic towards any imposition of unified regulations and the unions in countries such as France or Germany would resist any reforms which would threaten protection of employment of their members, or reduce state benefits.

For example, it is estimated there are over 300,000 French people living in London, making it the sixth biggest French city in terms of population. The usual explanation for this is that young people have found it hard to get a permanent job or start a business in France. There are more opportunities for them in the UK.

I’ve certainly found, as I have been expanding my business in France this year, that the bureaucracy and barriers to efficiency in France are quite bewildering compared to the UK. For example, in order to sell training courses to a French company, I have to hire an agent who is a registered company in France, and also is an approved training provider. This agent then has to provide all kinds of paperwork to the customer, so they can claim back from a state training fund the training taxes they have contributed. This adds considerable expense and delays to my business.

A Japanese company told me recently that when they tried to acquire a French software company that was about to go bankrupt, the employees decided they would prefer the company go bankrupt even though they would lose their jobs, because then they would have 80% of their salary, benefits and even mortgages paid for the next three years.

I can see that from the French perspective these regulations and taxes can be justified as ways of creating and retaining jobs and ensuring development of skills, but in reality all it has done is deter foreign companies from making any significant investments in France. So despite the visa difficulties, the UK is still the destination of choice in Europe, for businesses and people.

A 2017 update to this article appears here – A second look at France

This article was originally published in Japanese in the 10 December 2014 edition of the Teikoku Databank News. It also appears in Pernille Rudlin’s new book “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” – available as a paperback and Kindle ebook on Amazon.

British pragmatism, Scottish independence and Brexit

By the time you read this, Scotland may have chosen to become independent from the rest of Britain. In that case, as we say in English, “the heart has ruled the head.” The opinion polls a week before the vote show it is very close, with many undecideds – those whose heads say “no” to independence, but whose hearts are excited by “yes” to becoming a separate nation again, in charge of its own destiny, after 300 years of union with the UK.

Businesses, Scottish and English, have finally started speaking out, mostly for the “No Thanks” side of the campaign, but “no” is not very appealing word and the reasons for “no” can sound like scaremongering. The future is uncertain for an independent Scotland. Not only will difficult negotiations start on whether and how Scotland will be able to keep the sterling pound as its currency, but also negotiations will have to begin with the European Union as to whether and how soon Scotland can become a member nation.

The UK is also less than a year away from a General Election in May 2015, which the Conservative Party is fighting on a promise of a referendum of the UK’s membership of the EU. The UK Independence Party, which supports leaving the EU, has done very well in recent local and European elections, so it is a real possibility that if the Conservatives form the next government, the British people will vote to leave the European Union.

It must seem odd to Japanese business people that British citizens would willingly vote for actions which might undermine the political and economic stability that has made the UK such an attractive destination for foreign investment. But it is that very history of stability that seems to give Scottish and other British people the confidence that somehow everything will be all right. We pride ourselves on being pragmatic, and that we will somehow “muddle through”. Businesses are making contingency plans for Scottish independence and no doubt for any Brexit too.

Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, is the second financial city in the UK after London, but even the Royal Bank of Scotland says it is considering moving its headquarters to England if Scotland becomes independent. The other major sector in Scotland, the oil industry, has been unnerved by threats of nationalization should the Nationalists gain power. All sectors are worried that corporate taxes may have to rise to fund the Nationalists’ progressive policies or else that Scotland’s creditworthiness will be affected.

Unsurprisingly, Japanese companies (and other non-UK companies) have not spoken out on the issue, as this would be counterproductive, but as many Japanese banks, construction and engineering firms have invested in social infrastructure projects in Scotland and the rest of the UK, the hope must be that even if Scottish hearts win the vote for independence, the famously “canny”, rational Scottish heads will prevail afterwards and British pragmatism will also avoid too much upheaval in the coming years of renegotiations with the EU.

This article was originally published in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News on 1 October 2014 and also appears Pernille Rudlin’s new book “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” – available as a paperback and Kindle ebook on Amazon.

EMEA CEMEA EMEIA – Japanese regional headquarters in Europe – scope and location

My old employer Fujitsu’s latest attempt to resolve the “European regional headquarters” conundrum that many multinationals face is to create a region called EMEIA – Europe, Middle East, India and Africa. This is partly a reflection of the IT industry (having large outsourcing desktop support operations in India, which in Fujitsu’s case had actually been managed out of the USA operation previously) and also the legacy of the former Fujitsu Siemens global HQ in Germany selling hardware into India.

The EMEIA region will be headed up by Duncan Tait, CEO of Fujitsu UK & Ireland, who has also been made Corporate Senior Vice President in Fujitsu HQ’s new global matrix structure, so this represents a tipping of power back to the UK, having tipped over to Germany previously, with the previous tripartite European structure of C(ontinental) EMEA, UK & Ireland and the Nordics.

I had mentioned previously that there seemed to be a shift towards Japanese companies basing their European or EMEA headquarters in the UK. Some say this could be due to the relative tax structures in the UK being more favourable now than the Netherlands or Germany. My view is that Japanese companies are not quite as hard headed as that, and it is more to do with the favourable business climate (diverse, flexible workforce) and global infrastructure and support services that the UK offers.

I have big worries, therefore, on how any British exit from the EU might ultimately impact Japan’s investment in the UK. UKIP leader Nigel Farage and the Labour Party’s shadow chancellor Ed Balls recently had an exchange on this, with Farage (rightly alas) pointing out that Nissan were very negative on the impact of the UK not joining the euro and yet their factory is still in Sunderland.

For sure, Nissan will not be closing that factory down any time soon – it’s too efficient and the UK market is too important for that. But what I would be worried about if I was in government would be the more hidden ripple effect of headquarter location. It is true for all industries, not just the automotive industry, that the location of a major company’s regional headquarters will also affect its procurement, marketing, financing behaviours and therefore the suppliers around it. Furthermore, the roles needed to run these consolidated functions are the most senior and well paid jobs in an organisation. The economic impact is therefore not just about the size of the directly employed workforce in a factory. If the UK were no longer in the EU, I wonder whether we might not see a slow drift of headquarter functions, and supporting services and people, back to Germany or the Netherlands or Belgium.

Nissan’s European HQ is actually in Switzerland – unusually for a Japanese company – 18 out of the Top 30 Japanese employers in Europe have their regional headquarters or part of their regional headquarters in the UK. Official location may be only half the story however – I know that many Japanese companies are moving towards a more “virtual” regional structure, with top jobs and functions located across Europe. I will examine this further in future postings.

UK may drive away Japanese firms if it tries to “be like Norway”

It is likely there will be a referendum in 2016 on whether the UK retains its membership of the European Union or leaves. Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform, when he spoke to the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in the UK this year, predicted that the referendum would result in a vote for the UK to break away.

The British pro-European campaign is not as well funded as the anti-European campaign, and there are plenty of Euro-sceptic politicians of all political persuasions. The British media is also mainly prejudiced against Europe in its coverage.

The arguments for the UK staying in the EU are mostly technical, to do with foreign direct investment and the economic impact, whereas the anti-European campaign can make an emotional appeal, by invoking threats to national sovereignty.

British business people may be generally in favour of continuing as members but I agree with Charles Grant that there is a lack of enthusiasm, and a certain complacency about what will happen if the UK does leave. British businesses think the UK can be like Norway – prosperous, part of some kind of free trade area, but independent. In actual fact, Norway is not as immune as it may seem from EU policies, and yet has no influence over setting those policies.

From my Japanese business perspective, “being like Norway” would be disastrous for the UK. I have seen a slow trend towards consolidation across Europe over the past ten years amongst my seventy or so Japanese clients, with the UK playing an important role as the coordinating European headquarters, drawing on a pool of talented Europeans who can easily move to and from the UK thanks to the open borders within the European Union, either working for the headquarters itself or for professional support services such as lawyers, accountants and consultants.

Japanese companies now employ 437,000 people across Europe, according to JETRO, and the UK is by far the biggest beneficiary, with over 140,000 employees of Japanese companies, compared to Germany with 59,000. Germany still has a strong attraction for Japanese multinationals, however, particularly those which are more engineering oriented. If the UK shut its borders and stopped being an influence in the EU, it’s not hard to imagine Japanese companies shifting their European headquarter functions over to Munich or Düsseldorf – or Amsterdam.

All the Japanese business people resident in the UK with whom I have spoken want Britain to stay in the European Union. However, they are afraid to speak out, for fear that this would seem like foreigners trying to interfere in domestic politics. It is going to be up to British businesspeople like me, whose companies are active across the European Union, to make the case. It cannot just be about jobs for the UK, but also Britain’s image globally, and how it will be damaged by “Little Englander” isolationism. If we do not seem to want to play our part in globalisation, to be influential and proactive, the global players will take their ball elsewhere.

This article was originally published in September 2013 in the Nikkei Weekly. It also appears in Pernille Rudlin’s latest book “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” available as a paperback and Kindle ebook on Amazon.

Category: Brexit