Category: Brexit

A no deal Brexit will put the boot in for Japanese companies in the UK

My first job at Mitsubishi Corporation was exporting British made shoes from companies like Trickers and Crockett & Jones to Japan. They are high end shoes anyway, and Japanese tariffs of 30% on shoe imports certainly pushed them even further upmarket.  So when I was in Japan last month I was happy to see that one of our customers still had its Trading Post flagship shop in Aoyama, despite the so-called two lost decades in terms of economic growth. They must be one of the few businesses enjoying the fact that Brexit delays have improved their profit margins. Thanks to the new EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, tariffs on European shoe exports to Japan were reduced to 21% from February of this year. They will eventually be eliminated over the next 10 years.

Trickers and Crockett & Jones are presumably shipping out shoes to Japan as fast as they can make them while the UK’s membership of the EU lasts. Although Japan has entered discussions with the UK on a trade deal, they have made it clear that they are not going to concede as much as they did to the EU, and leather goods is one of the categories they are going to use as a bargaining weapon.

No roll over is bad for British shoes, cheese and booze

So a no deal Brexit or a Brexit before a UK-Japan free trade agreement is struck is bad news for the UK shoe industry, (and British cheese makers and whisky distillers will also miss out on the EPA’s tariff reductions). But not rolling over the EU-Japan EPA in to a UK-Japan trade agreement as soon as the UK leaves the EU will only have a small direct impact on both economies. According to a JETRO survey of over 3,000 Japanese companies, from March of this year, only 8.6% import from the UK, compared to 24.1% importing from Western Europe (excluding the UK) 66.2% from China and 24.2% from the USA.

Conversely, 22% of Japanese companies export to the UK, compared to 35% exporting to non-UK Western Europe, 49.6% to the USA and 59% to China.  It’s obvious from these figures why the US-China trade war is more concerning to Japan than Brexit.

You could argue that a UK-Japan free trade agreement would improve those percentages, but that’s an awful lot of shoes, cheese and booze to make any impact. Furthermore, a lot of the imports and exports between the UK and Japan may be EU related, rather than purely bilateral.  Think car parts from Japan to build cars for European consumers, or UK generated professional services for a Japanese EU headquarters and its European subsidiaries.

But no deal with the EU is even more of a headache for Japanese companies in the UK

Japanese companies that have a presence in the UK (just under 10% of the companies surveyed) have made it very clear that a No (UK-EU) Deal Brexit would be a disaster for them – far more than the UK no longer being part of the EU-Japan EPA. As frequently pointed out, they invested in the UK as a gateway to the rest of Europe.

45% of the turnover of Japanese companies in the UK is sales to Europe according to figures from the annual reports of the 200 or so who give regional breakdowns of sales.  The range is anywhere from close to 0% for companies selling everything from lighting to metal pressing to seeds just to the UK, through to 100% – largely automotive parts manufacturers who export almost all of their production to Europe, or at least sell it via their European headquarters in continental Europe.

Many of those who are focused on domestic UK sales are importing from Japan, China and Asia, or are at the end of a complex supply chain stretching across Europe. Some are not involved in trade of goods at all – for example NTT Data and Building Design Partnership.  The latter is one of the many of the services sector companies that have recently become Japan-owned via acquisition. NTT is aiming to grow its UK government business after Brexit, but if the UK economy tanks thanks to a no deal, it may have to wait a while. A JETRO survey last year highlighted that a UK economic slump because of Brexit was at the top of the list of concerns for Japanese companies in the UK and the rest of the EU, even more than changes in regulation or currency fluctuations.

The UK looks to lose its crown as the top European destination for Japanese acquisitions

Japanese acquisitions of British companies continued after the referendum, but the 2019 JETRO survey shows that it is likely the UK will lose its crown as the top destination in the EU for Japanese foreign direct investment. Non-UK Western Europe is in the top five destinations for expanding business for manufacturing textiles, clothing, foods, petrochemicals/plastics, electrical machinery, electronic components, fine engineering and also specialist services.  The UK does not feature at all in the top five of any of these sectors.

The UK’s service sector functions as a gateway to Europe is still the biggest influence on Japanese investment – the UK is a top 20 destination for expanding services such as regional coordination(#9), logistics (#13), R&D (#14), sales (#15) and localisation (#17), as well as high value added manufacturing (#17). However, non-UK Western Europe ranks higher and is in the top 10 destinations for all of these categories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Brexit yanks the lid off some stinky realities for Japanese business in the UK

My least favourite Japanese expression is “kusai mono ni futa” – when it stinks, put a lid on it. It is at the root of many Japanese corporate governance scandals. Mistakes are made or problems surface and instead of exposing them and causing loss of face all round, they are swept under the carpet, in the hope that they will somehow magically disappear. But of course stinky things with lids on just get stinkier.

On the face of it, there was nothing stinky about Japanese companies in the UK.  The very fact that the UK was such an easy place to do business – on a European and global scale – lulled Japanese companies into complacency.  Japanese expatriates like living in the UK, particularly around London, where the vast majority of Japanese business people are based.  A couple of years’ traineeship in London is also a great incentive to lure scarce young English speaking Japanese into your graduate recruitment scheme.

Brexit exposed complacency about profitability in the UK

Over 125 Japanese companies in the UK are the European headquarters, employing over 25,000 people (of the 160,000 UK employees in total who work for 1000 Japanese companies), with a combined turnover of over £40bn.  Much of that turnover derived from management fees from Japan headquarters, dividends from European subsidiaries or royalties from intellectual property, so the profitability or otherwise of the UK business itself was not so exposed.

Profitability in manufacturing is far more obvious.  Nissan, Honda and Toyota’s factories in the UK had high levels of productivity – they had to be to win the right to make each new model. But Honda never managed to sell enough of its cars in Europe for Swindon to reach full capacity.  The car industry is going through a shift away from petrol and diesel to electric. Japanese manufacturers like to be near their key markets to develop new models, and for electric vehicles, China is a far bigger and more promising market than Europe. The supply chains for electric vehicles are more developed and close knit in their Japan base.

Brexit yanked the lid off some stinky realities.  As the JETRO annual survey on business conditions for Japanese companies in Europe details, 60% of UK based Japanese companies predicted the future impact of Brexit on their business would be negative, and 25% said it had had a negative impact already. Most cited the threat to the supply chain of customs duties and customs procedures or divergence in regulations being introduced as their top concerns.

Over 90% of Japanese companies could withdraw their European headquarters from the UK because of Brexit

61% said that they had already decided to relocate/withdraw or had already relocated or withdrawn certain functions from their regional headquarters in the UK and another 32% are considering it – mostly as a partial relocation to another EU member state. As is well known, Panasonic and Sony have already done this. It was not just the threat of Brexit disrupting invoicing and customs clearance, but also in response as much to the new Japanese tax haven law. The UK’s lowering of the corporation tax rate of 17% to show Global Britain was still open for business meant revenue from dividends and royalties received in the UK would be considered as tax avoidance by the Japanese tax authorities.

More than two thirds of Japanese companies could withdraw their European sales functions from the UK

29% of Japanese companies in the UK have decided to relocate/withdraw or have already relocated/withdrawn their sales functions and a further 38% are considering doing so. Sharp Electronics has moved their inventory to Sharp in France along with responsibility for logistics and warehousing. Various automotive sector companies have moved customer accounts and product lines to Germany.

Moving sales or regional headquarter functions out of the UK does not have an immediate impact on jobs in the UK. In fact labour shortage is cited as the top concern for Japanese companies across Europe.  So they are likely to try to hang on to the employees they have, and the regional management will just operate in a much more virtual way – Sharp says its UK base will still have an executive/board level responsibility for Europe, as that is where its European executives are currently based.  For now.

Nearly two-thirds of Japanese manufacturers are withdrawing or considering withdrawing manufacturing from the UK

33% of Japanese manufacturers have decided to relocate or withdraw or have relocated or withdrawn their manufacturing from the UK  and 30% are considering doing so. This may seem surprisingly low given the fuss made over the car companies and their supply chains being impacted by Brexit.  But actually most Japanese manufacturers have alternative plants in Europe they can use if necessary. Those who do not are usually manufacturing highly specialised products that are less supply chain time critical, or for UK sales only or that they are presumably confident they can sell across Europe no matter what barriers there are.

No deal preparations

The JETRO survey did not specify the type of Brexit when asking Japanese companies in Europe in general about relocation or withdrawal plans, but did ask if any countermeasures had been taken for a no deal Brexit. Just over 10% of all Japanese companies – in the UK and Europe – had already made plans or were currently making plans. A further 15% of Japanese companies in the UK were intending to plan for no deal but only 4% of non UK EU companies were intending to plan (this was as of October 2018).  The most popular countermeasure was stockpiling (21%), followed by reorganising functions within the company group (10%).

Financial services already prepared for all possibilities

All the Japanese financial services companies that would be affected by Brexit have already put their plans into action – most now have licenses for the UK and obtained financial passporting or licenses in the EU as necessary.  Again, having to take a hard, cold look at their European operations has taken the lid off some long standing whiffy problems, particularly for Nomura, which looks like it will be shutting down its global wholesale side in London entirely.

No rollover and then there were none

Stockpiling as the main countermeasure for a no deal Brexit assumes that eventually a deal will be reached, before the stocks run out.  But such deals take time.  The EU-Japan European Partnership Agreement (EPA) started in 2013, finalised at the end of 2017, signed off in July 2018, and was in force from February 2019.  Known as cars for cheese – it was actually meant to promote food and car exports both ways. Japan has already been promoting European wines and cheeses in its supermarkets and announced the first shipment of fully farmed tuna to Europe under the EPA agreement.

Similarly, reduction on tariffs on cars and car parts was meant to protect Japanese branded manufacturing in Europe (because they could easily import Japan manufactured parts) and help European car  manufacturers export more cars to Japan.

Hard stinky cheese

If a no deal Brexit happens, although Japan started talks with the UK about rolling over the EPA, it has stated this would not be a cut and paste job.  Japan is clear that it expects more concessions from the UK than in the EU deal – including cheese and cars. So British cheese makers may find their exports to Japan have a longer time to ripen than they were planning, in the event of a no deal.

 

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Fewer Japanese in the UK, but more are making it their permanent home – thanks to Brexit?

The UK is still overwhelmingly the most popular place for Japanese residents in the EU to live, according to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. There are over 62,000 Japanese nationals living in the UK, compared to 45,000 in the next most popular country, Germany.  The Japanese community in the UK has shrunk by 6% since 2014, however, whereas Germany’s Japanese community has grown by 22% over the same period.

In fact all other major EU countries have more Japanese people living in them than four years’ ago.  It is only the UK that has shown a net fall in numbers. The Netherlands has had the biggest proportionate rise in Japanese residents since 2014 – 41% from 6,532 to 9,223.

On the face of it this would seem to be a Brexit related shift.  The Netherlands and Germany have been the most popular alternative bases for shifting headquarters and sales staff to, away from the UK, as we noted in a previous post.

 

UK loss of global prestige as a destination for media and diplomats

But looking more closely at the different categories used by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for classifying Japanese nationals reveals some other non-business factors too. The biggest proportional decrease is in Japanese people in the government related category – a 44% fall from 1,286 to 722. In a further indication of the UK’s drop in global prestige perhaps, the number of media related Japanese nationals has dropped 26% from 371 to 273. The largest drop in numbers is in the academic/student category – down nearly 7,000 from 20,000 in 2014 – peaking at 21,000 in 2015 and declining since.

Japanese students also put off by hostile environment

The fall in student/academic numbers is worrying, as this is a good source of income for UK universities.  When we looked at this a year ago, we noted that Japanese students are still studying in Europe – just more in Germany or France.  Or, like one participant in my seminar yesterday, they’ve realised they can learn English by studying in Asian universities – which are cheaper and nearer to Japan.

Talking to Japanese specialist recruiters, it may also be that the UK’s “hostile environment” has made it more difficult for Japanese students to stay on in the UK after graduating, to find a job. The 27% increase in permanent residents who have Japanese nationality over the past 4 years suggests that Brexit and visa worries may have caused a large number (nearly 22,000 now) of Japanese resident in the UK to take the leap of acknowledging that they are going to stay in the UK permanently and need to make sure their status is secure.

 

 

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Will Japan’s NTT put its global base in the UK despite – or because of – Brexit?

While Panasonic and Sony have announced they are shifting their European headquarters out of the UK because of Brexit (and Japanese tax haven laws), NTT are likely to place not just their European but their global (ie excluding Japan/domestic) headquarters in London. Is this despite Brexit, or even because of?  As previously blogged, NTT Data have been hiring by the hundreds in the UK, and staying positive about Brexit with one eye on public sector contracts for Brexit related IT systems such as border security and customs.

The President of NTT until 2018, Hiroo Unoura, had said in an interview five years’ ago that the US would be a global pivot for NTT, but I suspect, rather as my former employer Fujitsu has found, that it is very hard to take on the big US IT/telecoms giants in their home territory.  Some of the acquisitions that NTT and NTT Data have made over the past decade have been US companies such as Keane and Virtela, but some of the biggest acquisitions were in the EMEA region – Everis (Spain), Dimension Data (South Africa) and Value Team (Italy).

Cleaning up an organisational mess

As I said in a previous post, the result was an organisational mess.  NTT Data was kept separate from NTT as a brand and tried to unify across all its global acquisitions whereas Dimension Data, in some ways a competitor, was directly owned by NTT.  NTT also had a separate organisation NTT Communications, to manage its global businesses.

From this summer, NTT is setting up a global holding company, and putting 5 subsidiaries including NTT Communications, NTT Security, NTT Data and Dimension Data under its umbrella. The organisation of the 4 companies excluding NTT Data will be split between domestic Japanese and global, and the global businesses will be unified.

The last time NTT changed its structure this drastically was 20 years’ ago. They have faced two challenges since then, first with the attempted global expansion of NTT DoCoMo, particularly into the US, which led to large losses, after the dotcom bubble burst. For 10 years, no further investments were made outside of Japan.

The challenge of global profitability

The second challenge is profitability. The reason they structured themselves in such a complex way in 1999 was to open up NTT (which originated as a partially privatised former ministry of telecommunications organisation) to competition domestically. So merging the company back into a holding company is likely to be regarded with suspicion by its competitors in Japan. However, NTT has reached a limit of how much it can cut costs domestically, and although overseas turnover has risen thanks to all the acquisitions, profitability is not on target. So it was felt more radical steps were needed.

One model for this might be Japan Tobacco, says Kazuyuki Okudaira in the Nikkei. JT was also part privatised and acquired RJR Nabisco’s non-US tobacco business in 1999 and also Gallaher in the UK in 2006. Japan Tobacco’s global headquarters is in Switzerland, and 60% of its sales are now overseas.  “Whether NTT can repeat JT’s success remains to be seen” says Okudaira.

Is not being the US or China enough?

NTT has said it won’t confirm the decision about where it will base its global HQ until July, but has already moved into a swanky new office in the City of London. Dimension Data has 2,500 employees, over 10% of its global workforce, in the UK and its global hub and executives are in London.  In the short term at least, London remains the global financial capital in need of the kind of data centres and infrastructure NTT provides, and has a multinational, multilingual IT workforce. It’s also not the USA, and Japan is not China (see Huawei controversy).  In the longer run, however, if Japan Tobacco is meant to be the model, it’s worth remembering JT shut down the Gallaher factory in Northern Ireland in 2017, with the loss of 1,000 jobs. Even though it has a 41% share of the UK market, the factories and the bulk of the jobs are elsewhere in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

As we found at Fujitsu, even if you try to base your global marketing out of Europe, you still have to compete with US rivals – not only with IBM but Google and Amazon – in IT B2B services. NTT has a big brand recognition challenge on its hands which may mean that global profitability is elusive for a while yet.

 

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Are Japanese companies leaving the UK because of Brexit?

I’m afraid the answer to this question is yes, and no.  Bits of Japanese companies are leaving. What will be left in  the long run is some kind of UK-based training ground for Japanese companies’ star recruits to learn global management, with a local sales workforce attached.

I’ve come back from a recent trip to Japan clutching the brand new Toyo Keizai directory of Japanese companies overseas, which provides the data to dig into this question more deeply. It provides some clues as to whether, for example, Honda ending production in Europe is in part due to the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement reducing tariffs to zero on cars and car parts imported from Japan. If that was the case, there might be a general shift of automotive production away from the EU.

Asia is far more important to Japan than Europe

The number of Japanese companies overseas has increased 37% from 2008 to 2018, according to the Toyo Keizai data, to 31,574.  The true number will be bigger, as I know from my researches into the UK, there are many Japanese companies that Toyo Keizai has not managed to track down, or who maybe just don’t respond to their surveys. 62% of Japanese companies overseas are in Asia (excluding Japan obviously), 15% in Europe, 14% in North America, 5% in Latin America, 2% in Oceania, 1% in Africa and 1% in the Middle East.

If you look at it by employee number, the proportion is roughly the same – 68% in Asia, 11% in Europe, 11.8% in North America, 6.6% in Latin America, 1.5% in Oceania, 0.7% in Africa, 0.4% in the Middle East. An obvious factor in why there are proportionately more employees to number of companies in Asia and Latin America is the greater number of manufacturing operations in those regions.

So already we see Europe represents 11-15% of the business of Japanese multinationals, and those companies are relatively less likely to be manufacturing operations than in Asia or Latin America.

The number of Japanese companies in Europe has increased 35% in ten years

Japanese companies have not been pulling out of Europe, however. There was a 35% increase in the number of companies in Europe 2008-2018, so not far off the average global increase of 37%.  The biggest growth was in Latin America – 47%, then the Middle East (45%) and Africa (43%) – but from a small base.  The number of companies in Asia grew 38% and only 30% in North America.

Growth in the number of Japanese companies overseas has been more muted in the past 4 years – a 7.9% increase 2015-2018.  But the  increase in the number of Japanese companies in Europe was above average – at 12.5%.  The increases in companies in Asia (7.6%) and Latin America (5.6%) were below average – so there was a boom in Japanese investment in developing countries during the 2008-2014 period, but this died down in the past 4 years.

Japanese automotive manufacturers are not pulling out of Europe – quite the reverse

So how about investment in automotive manufacturing – the sector that has made the most noise in Brexit UK?  The number of Japanese companies overseas in the “transportation machinery manufacturing” category that Toyo Keizai uses (which presumably corresponds to automotive manufacturing) rose 6% 2015-2018, so significantly slower growth than overall.  Again, Europe showed above average growth of 13%, but only represents 10% of transportation machinery manufacturers overseas operations.   Over 64% of automotive manufacturer sites are in ex-Japan Asia. So although Japanese automotive companies are not pulling out of Europe – rather the reverse – the major part of Japanese automotive investment is and continues to be in Asia.  So no surprises really that Honda and others are choosing to focus on Asia for electric vehicle development – that is where the largest ecosystems and supply chains are based.

UK is still has the most automotive manufacturers in Europe, but is not getting any new investment

How about the UK in all of this?  The UK had and continues to have the largest number of automotive related manufacturers in Europe, according to Toyo Keizai – 32 in 2015 (out of 192 in Europe) and 30 in 2018 (out of 217). I haven’t been able to identify both of the companies that have withdrawn from the UK, but one is almost certainly Keihin, 41% owned by Honda, who shut down production of vehicle engine management systems and climate control systems in the UK in 2014-5 and shifted production to the Czech Republic.  The other might be more to do with renaming and consolidation rather than withdrawal of manufacturing.

Keihin’s move is clearly “pre-Brexit” but what is obvious is that the UK is not getting any new investment in the automotive sector since Brexit. Of the 29 new automotive manufacturing operations started in Europe in 2015-2018, 8 were in Germany, 4 in France, 4 in Slovakia, 3 in Spain, 3 in Italy, 3 in Hungary and 2 in the Czech Republic but none in the UK.  Germany, France and the Czech Republic are now not far behind the UK in the number of automotive production sites that they host.

So the idea that the zero tariffs on cars and car part imports from Japan which would eventually arise from the EU-Japan Economic Partnership has meant that it is no longer attractive to manufacture cars and car parts in the UK or the rest of the EU also does not seem to hold – yet.  In fact I was surprised to see that Western Europe has held up well against the cheaper Eastern European countries.

UK employees of Japanese companies up 20% on 2015, mainly due to acquisitions

Generally, the number of Japanese companies in the UK is still rising – 972 in 2018 according to Toyo Keizai, 11.1% up on 2015. The other countries in the top 5 – Germany, Netherlands, France and Italy are all hosting more Japanese companies too, and the numbers have grown slightly faster than in the UK, by between 11.8% to 13.5% over the past 4 years.

Many of the new Japanese in companies in the UK over the past few years have been acquisitions in biotech/pharma, high tech, outsourcing/staffing, automotive services and new arrivals have been in fintech, or investment/holding companies.

So what about the companies that have said they are leaving the UK because of Brexit, such as Panasonic and Sony?  Well, rather like Keihin, they are not actually leaving the UK, just moving some functions, in this case the regional headquarters functions rather than manufacturing, to the Netherlands or Germany.  This kind of “leaving” – turning what were incorporated subsidiaries into branches, has emerged in other Japanese companies too, as one reaction to Brexit.  Invoicing, tax on sales, royalties etc will all be taken care of by the regional headquarters, and the UK branch will be funded by management fees.

So although the numbers employed by Japanese companies in the UK continue to rise (by 20% since 2015), this is more the result of acquisition of existing staff, rather than the creation of large numbers of new jobs that greenfield manufacturing investment brings.

During my trip to Japan last week I met with Leo Lewis, Financial Times Tokyo Correspondent, and it is to him that I owe the insight that Japanese companies will never leave the UK completely, as it is too attractive an incentive to their highflyers, to be able to promise a couple of years early in their career to learn the ropes of global business in the UK. But bits will nonetheless leave, as the recent news about Nomura’s restructuring shows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The fourth industrial revolution should not be mercantilized

UK is the birthplace of innovation and will not sink, despite Brexit, says Toru Sugawara, the deputy editor of the Nikkei Business magazine – Japan’s equivalent of The Economist (only with more business, less economy).

He acknowledges that Brexit is casting a shadow on the world economy, and that the problems will not end just with an extension, as the negotiations will drag on, unless the result of the referendum is reversed.

He points to how employment remains buoyant in the UK, despite GDP growth being the lowest in 6 years, and says that this could be because immigration from the EU is decreasing – which was one of the reasons people voted to leave. He does not mention that net immigration has not dropped, as more people are coming from non-EU countries.  So unless you believe that EU immigrants only have jobs which UK natives could do, and non-EU immigrants only do jobs that UK natives couldn’t do…

He believes the UK’s resilience derives from an inner strength which helped it to lead the industrial revolution as the “birthplace of innovation.” Because the UK has worldclass universities  “UK research levels are extremely high. Even if they leave the EU, there are researchers who want to learn from the UK” – according to  an engineer from a major Japanese electronics company.

The UK is similar to Japan, Sugawara notes, in that neither was able to match Silicon Valley in terms of being able to turn innovations into world changing businesses.  He thinks the UK is changing, however, dating from when the British Business Bank launched in 2014, bringing together various funds for startups and small businesses and also the introduction of the regulatory sandbox, to allow new kinds of financial services to test their products.

Venture capital funding in the UK in 2018 was $7.9bn, double that of Germany or France (although what he doesn’t say is that this was down from a high of $8.1bn the previous year, and that Germany and France seem to be catching up) . Dr Yuri Okina of the Japan Research Institute points out that the UK’s strength is that as well as having the world’s financial centre, there is a rich source of accountants, lawyers, consultants and other specialists who support an ecosystem for new business.

If this network could be boosted further, then the UK could lead the 4th wave of the industrial revolution, asserts Sugawara. He warns that Japan, who puts its funds into propping up zombie companies, with regulatory systems that impede new industries from growing, will get left behind. “That’s the bigger worry” he concludes.

So he seems to be turning an encouraging pat on the back for the UK into a kick up the backside for Japan.  What he says is not going to be news to many Japanese companies, who have reacted to the difficulties they face in Japan by investing in the UK (and elsewhere in Europe). Sugawara mentions SoftBank‘s acquisition of the UK’s ARM, but there have been plenty of other less spectacular investments. Much of it has to do with CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric) in the automotive industry –  Sony Innovation has invested in What3Words (a geocoding system) – also invested in by Daimler. Itochu has invested in Hiyacar and I realise now that its acquisition of UK car repair chain KwikFit probably also fits into this automotive services play. Similarly Sumitomo Corporation has invested in the Nordic parking company Q-Park and Sweden’s car sharing service Aimo.  Japan’s Park24 acquiring National Car Parks in the UK is probably also looking to a CASE future. Panasonic acquired Spanish automotive systems and parts company Ficosa in 2017.

So really, it’s not about any one country leading the fourth industrial revolution – it will be collaborative and global by its very nature. Both Japan and the UK need to keep their doors as wide open as possible to let everyone get on the ride.

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Five elements of building trust between Japanese and European business cultures

If I were to capture what I try to do in my work in one phrase, it would be “build trust between Japanese and European business cultures.” This of course leads to questions of how trust is defined, and therefore how it is built.

The title of my new book, Shinrai, is the Japanese word for “trust”. It is composed of two characters, shin, meaning “believe”, and rai, which means “to request”. In other words, if you trust someone, you believe they will do what you request. The character for shin can be broken down further into components which mean “person” and “word” and the character for rai can be broken down into “bundle” and “leaves or pages”. It implies communication between people is a fundamental part of building trust, but also getting things done and pulling together.

Analysing the work I have done with clients over the past fifteen years, I would say there are five components of building trust in multinational companies. In sequential order they are communication, mutual interests, processes and regulations, reliability and accountability and vision and values – and then back to communication again in a virtuous circle.

1. Communication

Having a common language is critical – this is why any initiative to help immigrants integrate into a society usually starts with language lessons. The problem for Japan is that for native speakers of European languages, Japanese is one of the most difficult languages to learn and Japanese feel similarly about English. Japanese companies can do more to help Westerners learn Japanese – an intensive course in Japan is one of the most effective ways to do this. Japanese companies can also communicate better than they do in English – it’s not enough to make English the common language or force a minimum English level on employees, management needs to communicate vision, strategy and plans in English more effectively than it currently does.

 2. Mutual interests

The Economic Partnership Agreement between Japan and the EU is a classic example of common interests helping to build trust. People have differing degrees of interests, but finding mutual interests means that there is a stable basis for negotiation. Japan wants to sell more cars in Europe, European consumers are happy to have cheaper, good quality Japanese cars. Europe wants to sell more food and drink to Japan, Japanese consumers are happy to have cheaper, good quality European wine and cheese. On a micro level, this is why I always encourage Japanese expatriates in Europe to engage in small talk with their European colleagues – it’s a way of discovering mutual interests, which means mutual understanding, compromises and agreements are more easily gained.

 3. Processes and regulations

Once you have discovered your mutual interests, you can come to an agreement, but it needs mutually recognised standards to work well. What are the quality and safety standards expected of a car, or a cheese in your respective countries?

When there is a low level of trust, laws, regulations and processes are needed as a fall back. However, both Japanese companies and the European Union are sometimes guilty of becoming bogged down in bureaucracy and process. You have to show you are obeying regulations and following processes in order to be trusted, but ultimately, this is not sufficient. How you do something in terms of your intentions and behaviour towards others is as important as carrying out the process correctly and obeying the law.

 4. Reliability & accountability

When you trust someone, it is not only because you believe they will obey the law, but also that they will do what they say they will do. For Japanese companies, this can be hard to define, as the culture is often a family style one, where everyone’s roles are vague, with no job descriptions and rely on a seniority-based hierarchy. It’s assumed everyone will do whatever necessary, in the best interests of the family. Rules can be bent for family members but this vagueness does not work well in more diverse organisations.

The current fight between Carlos Ghosn and Nissan is focused on processes and regulations. Nissan will try to prove Ghosn flouted Japanese law, but will have to answer questions about its own internal rules. Ghosn will try to prove that he followed both internal and external regulations. But what really seems to be at stake is a loss of mutual trust between Saikawa and other Japanese executives and Ghosn. If you are an insider in a Japanese company, you are trusted as a family member to act in the best interests of the family, and rules can be bent accordingly. But once you are seen as an outsider and acting in your own interests, possibly harming the company, then the rules are applied rigidly – just as the UK is finding out as it negotiates to leave the EU.

 5. Vision & Values

This is why you need a clear vision of where the company is going and how you want it to be seen. The vision and values have to be discussed with and shared with employees so they feel they belong. The values will guide them as to how they should behave in order to achieve that vision. If the vision is simply to hit various targets, within the boundaries of rigid rules and processes, without employees engaged with the company values, then the kinds of corporate scandals we have seen in both Japanese and European companies will continue, with catastrophic consequences for trust across societies and cultures.

This article is in the introduction of “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” by Pernille Rudlin, available on Amazon as a paperback and ebook.

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Some Japanese companies in the UK see Brexit as a business opportunity

In an article for the Teikoku Databank News in October 2016, I wrote about how Japanese business people in the UK were surprised that many British people’s reaction to Brexit was to try to be positive and seek out new business opportunities – I particularly pointed to Africa and the Middle East, infrastructure projects in the UK and M&A in the UK.

Now Nikkei Business magazine also has an article on Japanese companies in the UK that have indeed seen there are business opportunities in Brexit.

First up is NTT Data, who expect that clients will be looking to introduce new IT systems as a result of Brexit. For example, to cope with any new tariff and customs checks, goods might need IC tags.  Also, there will be more need to check the work permits of EU citizens in the UK.

NTT Data has added over 200 IT consultants and digital design specialists in the past year, to its existing 700 staff and expects to add another 100 this year.  It also acquired UK software development MagenTys company in May 2018 and opened up a design studio in London aimed at collaboration with start-up companies.

Brexit may also mean that the UK’s distribution system needs to adapt – there will be more need for warehousing and holding zones. The Japanese logistics company Nippon Express is therefore looking at strengthening its warehousing business. “We get a lot of enquiries for warehousing, so we want to be ready for any needs arising from Brexit”, says UK MD Toshinori Sakai.

Japanese security company SECOM is also expecting there to be greater needs for security systems arising from Brexit. Up until now security companies had been able to rely on hiring low wage immigrant security guards but if immigration is cut back then there will be greater need for SECOM’s security cameras and other automation, to replace those guards. SECOM’s UK MD, Minoru Takezawa predicts that the cost of providing security will rise as a consequence of cutting off the supply of cheap labour, so technology-based solutions will become more competitive.

SECOM started a new service in 2017 alerting retail chains when people with criminal records are entering their outlets.  They have increased the staffing of their monitoring centre from 40 to 100 and acquired a Northern Ireland headquartered Scan Alarms & Security Systems in March 2017.

Nikkei Business acknowledges that many of Japan’s manufacturers – particularly in the automotive sector –  are preparing for the worst, in terms of Brexit related disruption. But many multinationals in the IT sector, such as Google and Apple, have invested further in London, Cambridge and Oxford, in pursuit of a high skilled workforce and overall Japanese investment into the UK continues to increase in 2016 and 2017, and not just because of SoftBank acquiring ARM in 2016.

Law firm Ashurst’s Hiroyuki Iwamura points out that the UK is a pivot to global markets, particularly to the US. Theresa May is showing particular consideration for Japanese businesses – If they worry too much about the negative impact of Brexit, they may miss some good business chances, Nikkei Business London bureau chief Takahiro Onishi concludes.

If you would like to purchase a detailed list (address, company size etc) of acquisitions made by Japanese companies in the UK in 2016 (24 companies), 2017 (21 companies), 2018 (8 so far), please contact Pernille Rudlin (pernilledotrudlinatrudlinconsultingdotcom)

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Brexit brings turning point for Japanese automotive suppliers in the UK

“We don’t have any room to store increased stocks” says Hiroshi Seko, the UK MD of G-TEKT, a Japanese automotive supplier. According to the Nikkei newspaper, BMW have asked the automotive body work supplier stock 3 months’ worth of supplies for the Mini because of concerns about the impact of Brexit on supply chains, when normally they only hold around a week’s worth. G-TEKT imports 60% of the raw materials from France but does not actually have anywhere in their factories’ grounds to store these raw materials.

G-TEKT has just started up its fourth factory in the UK (2 in Gloucester, 2 in Wales), to supply Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota.  It has increased employees from 568 to 808 over the past 3 years but is struggling to hire all it needs, particularly from continental EU, because of Brexit.

UK sales represent around 7% of G-TEKT’s global turnover, most of its sales in Europe. It has also just started to build a factory in Slovakia, again to supply JLR, from 2019.

Similarly, Takayuki Furuuchi the UK MD of Japanese automotive supplier Faltec, whose only production in Europe is their factory in Sunderland to supply Nissan, is also wondering if current lead times are sustainable. Faltec imports more than half of its metal materials from outside the UK and is worried that with a no deal Brexit, ithere will be difficulties in the logistics of supply of stainless steel from France and other EU supplier countries.  These supply trucks pass through the Channel Tunnel to Dover. The Dover port authority estimates that a two minute inspection time would lead to a 27 mile tail back of traffic.

Faltec currently has a 2 day lead time from when Nissan orders the parts to when they expect delivery.  Faltec is wondering whether it needs to adjust its procurement, but it has taken many years to build up a supply chain which meets car manufacturers’ rigorous standards and it will likely take a long time to make any changes to this.

According to a Japanese automotive supplier executive, “if there are logistical hold ups, then suppliers will just have to hold more stock”. Faltec is currently investigating holding stock at its own risk and whether there are any warehouses available nearby.

Nissan is starting production of its next generation SUV Qashqai for the European market from 2020.  Expecting that suppliers will be expanding production as a consequence, the local authorities have given the go ahead for a new industrial park near the Nissan factory in Sunderland. But if chaos after Brexit affects the supply chain, there will be an impact on companies’ European strategy.  Both Faltec and G-TEKT have been successfully expanding in the UK for over 20 years – Faltec increased employee numbers over the past few years in the UK, from 341 to 396.  With UK sales at around 6-7% of turnover for both companies, they are not facing a huge hit on a global scale from Brexit, but as suppliers, they have to accommodate whatever car manufacturers request.

“It has been 40 years since Japan’s automotive industry first set up shop in the UK. The British automotive industry is facing a turning point, not just for car manufacturers but for parts suppliers who have invested so much time and money into the UK”, concludes the Nikkei.

 

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“We will stick with the UK as a global supply base, despite Brexit” says Honda President

“Europe is the heart of global car culture” says Takahiro Hachigo, Honda’s President since 2015. Although Honda has less than 1% market share in Europe, it competes with European car brands in its main markets of the USA and China. The UK factory has been streamlined, and production lines consolidated as a global production centre, exporting Civics to Europe and the USA.  Hachigo says that they are therefore committed to the Swindon factory as a global supply base, regardless of Brexit. “If there is a no deal Brexit, there will be temporary disruption, so I am very much hoping that this disruption will be avoided and outstanding issues resolved”, says Hachigo.

However, as the Nikkei points out in their interview with Hachigo, if there is a no deal Brexit, without a transition period to 2020, Honda’s exports to Europe will be affected immediately and supply chain issues may make it difficult to export so easily to the USA too.

Honda has committed to a 30 year plan with a goal of “pursuit of quality” – to develop cars that will still sell at a high price, in an age of car sharing and electric vehicles. Hachigo also seems very keen in the interview to keep participating in Formula 1 (another UK strength). UK has that “luxury car maker” image, with Rolls Royce and Bentley, so it is understandable that Honda still wants to keep a base there, but as the Nikkei says “difficult management decisions will be needed in the future” to realise this strategy.  I also wonder whether Honda’s current brand image, in Europe at least, really is convincing as a luxury, higher price positioning.

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