Brexit Archives - Rudlin Consulting

Are Japanese companies leaving the UK because of Brexit yet?

I asked this question just over a year ago and the answer is still yes and no. To which I would add, it’s more a case that Japanese companies aren’t investing in or coming to the UK as much as they used to, replacing the ones that are leaving or downsizing.

Asia continues to dominate as location for Japanese companies overseas

The number of Japanese companies overseas is, according to Toyo Keizai*, continuing to increase – up 65% from 2008, but the rate of increase has been slowing since 2013. The number of Japanese companies overseas grew 2% from 2018 to 2019, with growth in all regions – higher growth in Africa/Oceania (from a small base) but only 1% growth in Europe compared to 3% in North America and Asia.

63% of Japanese companies overseas are in ex-Japan Asia – up from 62% in 2018 and 69% of the employees of Japanese companies abroad are in Asia. Around 15% of Japanese companies abroad are in Europe and 14% in North America, with both regions having around 11% of employees. As pointed out last year, the obvious factor in why there are proportionately more employees to number of companies in Asia compared to Europe and North America is the greater number of manufacturing operations in Asia, with larger workforces.

The number of UK employees of Japanese companies has fallen for the first time, by 9%

Within Europe, the number of people employed by Japanese companies rose 18% from 2015 to 2019. Those countries where the number of Japanese company employees has fallen are countries where there has been a rise in populism, civic unrest and political risk. UK employee numbers fell 9% 2018-9 (the first decline since at least 2015), Spanish employee numbers fell 19% 2018-9, Hungary’s fell 18%, Turkey’s 10%, Poland and Italy also showed small decreases in employee numbers.

Countries where Japanese employee numbers are growing are the Netherlands (up 11% 2018-9), France (10%), Germany (2%) and the Czech Republic (2%). Employee numbers in Romania doubled from 2018-9 but this is largely due to Toyo Keizai recording employee numbers at Alcedo (acquired by Sumitomo Corporation in 2011) as being 20,284, having been 318 in 2018. The 2018 number is more in line with other available data.

Number of Japanese companies in UK has fallen for first time

The number of Japanese companies in the UK has fallen by 1% 2018-9, from 972 to 966, the first drop since at least 2015, having risen 11% 2015-2018. France also saw a 2% drop in the number of Japanese companies, even though employee numbers are up. Germany attracted a 4% increase in Japanese companies from 2018-9, having risen 13% 2015-8. Netherlands had a 1% increase 2018-9 (13.5% 2015-8) and Italy had a 2% rise in Japanese companies 2018-9, and an increase of 11.8% 2015-8.

It’s hard to work out where Toyo Keizai derives the net drop of 6 Japanese companies in the UK from. Their list of the 7 companies which have closed down in the UK 2019 shows that this was mainly due to reorganization of holding companies or merging of companies rather than full withdrawal from the UK. Of the 8 new Japanese companies in the UK in 2019, 5 were indirect investments into energy companies by Nippon Koei, a civil engineering company and 2 were indirect investments by WDI, a Hong Kong originated Dim Sum chain which is registered in Japan.

Germany now hosts more Japanese automotive companies than the UK

The Japanese automotive sector is of course the sector being most carefully watched for Brexit impact. Japanese automotive manufacturers are continuing to set up overseas – the total number globally has increased 10% in 2019 on 2015. And “despite” the EU-Japan EPA, 15 more Japanese transportation equipment manufacturers set up in Europe in 2019, a 20% cumulative increase on 2015. Of the 15 new companies, 4 are in Germany, 3 in Poland, 2 in Spain, 2 in Portugal, 1 in France, 1 in Italy, 1 in Slovakia and 1 mystery one. This means Germany now hosts more automotive/transportation equipment companies than the UK – 31 to the UK’s 30.

Japanese acquisitions of UK companies reduced in scale and number

Toyo Keizai’s data is reliant on companies filling in their surveys, so tends to underreport and often misses acquisitions. From my database, I estimate 20 British companies were acquired by Japanese companies in 2019-2020, although some of them were indirect acquisitions through acquiring a parent company with a subsidiary in the UK. Dentsu and Sony continued to acquire UK based companies, and other acquisitions were of British companies in software, gaming, hotels, seafood, recruitment, a manufacturer of drives for electric motors and paper wholesale. The scale is far less than in previous years, both in terms of numbers of acquisitions and value of the deals.

Even adding these acquisitions in shows a 3% drop in the number of people employed by Japanese companies in the UK from 2018/9 to 2019/20 according to my database – the first drop since I started tracking these numbers in 2015.

* Toyo Keizai Data Bank: Directory of Japanese Companies Abroad 2020

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UK’s priority in Japan trade agreement is not increasing exports, it’s protecting Japan’s investments in UK

My view on Brexit was that it was accelerating trends that were already there for Japanese business in Europe, and gave them cover to do things they were already wanting to do.

The COVID-19 pandemic seems set to provide similar cover and if the UK is not careful, this will mean a further withdrawal of Japanese investment from the UK.

Japanese companies are still in search of growth outside the ageing, declining population of the Japanese market, and this includes in Europe. According to Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs data, the number of Japanese companies in Europe grew 16% from 2012-2018 and the number of Japanese nationals in Europe also grew over the same period by 12%.

At the same time Japanese companies are very risk averse. Brexit was seen as a risk from around 2013 onwards, and this is reflected in the number of Japanese companies and nationals in UK falling by 11% and 7% respectively over 2012-2018 – the only country in Europe to show such significant decreases. Germany already hosts more Japanese companies than the UK and is catching up in terms of hosting Japanese nationals too.

Although Japan is still more of a manufacturing, exporting nation than the UK is, both the UK and Europe are just as – if not more – important to Japan as a destination for investment than as a market for exports of finished goods. As the DIT itself estimates, around 59% of Japanese exports to the UK are intermediate goods, used in supply chains. So in other words, a large number of Japan’s investments in the UK and the Europe boost Japanese exports to the UK and Europe.

The trends in current Japanese trade and investment in Europe and the UK need to be examined for their impact in the four areas where Japan has influence over the UK economy

1. Existing UK jobs reliant on Japanese companies

The Japanese automotive sector is a key source of existing jobs for the UK as it accounts for around a quarter of the 163,000 people I estimate are employed in the UK by Japanese companies. There was a 3% decline from 2017/8 to 2018/9 in employment in the Japanese automotive sector in the UK, however, whereas employment in Japanese automotive companies grew elsewhere in Europe, particularly in Eastern Europe.

So while zero tariffs on automotive parts from Japan to the UK will help – this might just be trying to hold back the tide. The possibility of tariffs on exports of cars made in the UK to the EU is obviously a concern for Japanese companies too. Maybe sterling will fall far enough or there will be sufficient government subsidies to mitigate this extra cost but ultimately Japanese companies will choose to manufacture where there they can access not just the lowest costs but also a market sufficiently large to ensure full production capacity.

Obviously there is a strong need to focus on electric vehicle development, and the UK has strength in automotive design, but Japanese car manufacturers will be wanting to develop EVs in line with EU regulations and to be able to influence EU regulations – which is easier done from inside the EU than outside.

2. Where the new Japanese jobs are in the UK

Hitachi is the most significant recent contributor to organic job growth in Japanese companies in the UK – largely due to Hitachi Rail. Hitachi has also invested in Horizon Nuclear Power, which is currently “on ice”. Hitachi’s focus is on social infrastructure, and various commitments by UK governments on investing in transportation and energy are key to this. Many other Japanese companies are also interested in social infrastructure business in Europe.

A UK Japan trade agreement can support further job growth by facilitating the export of parts for these industries from Japan. Hitachi has also invested in rail manufacturing in Italy so if there are any tariffs making exports from the UK to the EU uncompetitive, they have an alternative manufacturing location within the EU.

Other Japanese companies that are expanding in the UK include NTT, the ICT/telecommunications giant, who have put their non-Japan global HQ in London and SoftBank, who acquired ARM and committed to expand the workforce. Presumably this is why DIT is emphasizing free data flows between Japan and the UK, which would be welcomed by Japanese ICT companies and Japanese regional headquarter functions based in the UK.

I’m seeing some positive impacts of the EU-Japan EPA on investment elsewhere in Europe. There have been quite a few acquisitions by Japanese companies of food businesses in France for example. Japanese trade statistics show that food and alcohol exports to Japan from Europe have risen after the EPA came into force. If a similar agreement on food, textiles and leather goods to the EU Japan EPA is reached between Japan and the UK as the DIT is asking, there may be similar acquisitions by Japanese companies in the UK – as well as the growth in exports for UK SMEs that the DIT seems to be focusing on. There already have been a few food related acquisitions by Japanese companies in the UK. This might see some increase in new jobs in the UK as a result. But this is marginal compared to the jobs that could be created by Japanese investment in the UK infrastructure sector.

3. UK exports of services to Japan are M&A driven

It seems likely that Japanese companies will continue to use their piled-up cash to acquire – perhaps in Asia initially as it is opening up first after COVID-19. In the past, Japan established companies in the UK as gateway to EU but recent Japanese acquisitions in the UK have been increasingly pure domestic (recruitment, car parking, outsourcing, advertising) or pure global (SoftBank, financial services).

These acquisitions do not necessarily create more jobs, but financial, legal and other services around the acquisitions is, I would guess, a large component of UK services exports to Japan. Allowing UK professionals to operate in Japan is not a key driver – it is more that UK based professionals are supporting Japanese companies in Europe and globally. I even know of one UK based, American owned advertising agency that deals directly with the Japan HQ of a Japanese sports brand on their global campaigns, even though the advertising agency have a Japanese office.

Japanese companies may well buy up more British companies in the near future, as they will be cheap. However, there does seem to be a decline in big ticket acquisitions in the UK – the most recent major European acquisition by a Japanese company that I am aware of is Mitsubishi Corporation acquiring the Dutch Energy company ENECO – my understanding is that Netherlands based services companies mainly supported this.

4. Export of services because of UK as European/EMEA hub

Another element in the UK’s export of services to Japan is that the UK subsidiaries of Japanese companies often perform a regional headquarters function for Japanese firms – and receive management fees for this. Brexit (but also changes in Japanese laws on treatment of offshore profits) has caused some Japanese companies to move their regional HQ from UK (Panasonic, Sony) in a legal and financial sense. But there is still a critical mass of people in the UK working for such companies, because the UK provides marketing, IT, design, engineering, legal, financial, accounting services that are of a high, globally accepted standard.

This is why, as the JETRO survey of 2019 of Japanese companies in Europe pointed out, the biggest regulatory concern of Japanese companies is that the UK or the EU might change regulations regarding the freedom of movement between the UK and EU for their employees. Continuing that regional coordination role requires regional employees to move around the region – or can this all now be done by web conferencing?

The UK is still seen by Japan as an attractive place to send students but also employees for education and development. Japanese students only want short term, under 1 year courses, however and many are looking at cheaper, nearer options. Both students and Japanese professionals would want ease of acquiring visas, including work visas and a safe, stable environment to live in.

UK offensive interests

Looking at the recent DIT paper on the UK-Japan FTA, clearly there are some non-tariff barriers to the UK accessing the Japanese market – as there have been for decades. But my overwhelming impression is that most British companies have not been very proactive in approaching the Japanese market – it’s a big commitment, opening an office in Japan is needed, not just exporting from afar. It’s relatively easy to set up a company in Japan but not so easy to hire the right people. There is a labour shortage, particularly of capable salespeople who are English speakers. This is not something that can be solved in a trade agreement.

A final point regarding the DIT paper’s claim that the UK is a “technology superpower” – not in Japanese eyes I’m afraid – possibly in fintech and there have been some Japanese investments in that sector in the UK. But they’re fairly small scale. Japanese technology companies such as Panasonic are basing their innovation arms in Silicon Valley. The US, China and the EU are more important to Japan than the UK – in many ways.

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Japanese shift to Germany continues

Germany has historically been the main rival to the UK in Europe for Japanese investment. The UK absorbs about 40% of total Japanese investment into the EU but according to the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are actually 50% more Japan originated companies (703) in Germany compared to the UK (471).*

The reason for this discrepancy in numbers may be to do with the difference in the sectors that are investing in Germany and the UK and also the scale of the companies that are being acquired. According to my own research there are more employees on average at Japan affiliated companies in the UK than there are for Japan affiliated companies in Germany.

More Japanese employers in Germany but fewer employees than UK

This may be because the big employers – Japanese car manufacturers – do not have production in Germany – unlike the UK with Nissan, Honda and Toyota. There are plenty of Japanese automotive component manufacturers in Germany, but they tend to be what is known in German as “Mittelstand” or medium sized companies.

Manufacturing represents around 20% of German GDP, similar to Japan. Germany has of course always had a strong reputation for engineering and German cultural values such as risk aversion and process orientation fit well with Japanese corporate mindsets.

Japanese expats in UK mostly in regional HQ and services roles

By contrast, only 11% of the UK’s GDP is derived from manufacturing and 80% of UK GDP is services, particularly financial services such as banking and insurance. This sector accounts for quite a few of the Japanese companies who have multiple subsidiaries in the UK, as well as trading companies, holding companies and services companies providing financing and other functions across Europe.

This might explain why UK has more Japanese residents than Germany – presumably acting as liaison and coordinators with Japan HQ for the region – around 63,000 compared to 46,000 in Germany. However, this number is falling for the UK, and increasing for Germany.

A drop in Japanese students and intra company transferees in UK since 2015

Does this mean that the UK is losing its role as the services centre for the region to Germany? Looking at the detail, it seems the main factor behind the drop in the number of Japanese in the UK is that there are 3,000 fewer Japanese students and academics in the UK compared to a year ago.**

Intra company transferees to the UK fell by 1% from 2015 to 2017 whereas there are now many hundreds more Japanese transferees living in Germany, the Netherlands and Eastern Europe than three years’ ago.

As Japanese manufacturing shifts eastwards in Europe, sales hubs are moving with them

Looking at the recent investments into the UK and Germany, the trends of the past few years still seem to hold. Investments into the UK are in the form of establishing regional holding companies, or M&A in biotech, information technology and services for the UK market such as car parking. Investments into Germany are mainly for the wholesale of electronic components and machinery. Sometimes these are German sales offices for Japanese companies who already have sales or manufacturing in the UK. As manufacturing shifts eastward in Europe, so the sales hubs are moving with them.

Update for 2019-2020

The above article was written for the Teikoku Databank News in October of 2018. Since then, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has published further data on Japanese nationals resident in Europe and Japanese companies operating in Europe, but unfortunately without the level of detail that was available previously.

The chart below summarises the data available for the UK and Germany – showing the continuing long term trend of an increase in Japanese companies and nationals in Germany, and a decline in Japanese companies and nationals in the UK. Overall across Europe, the number of Japanese companies and nationals has increased in the past five or so years, but more in Eastern Europe recently.

This is reinforced by the data collected by Toyo Keizai of Japanese expatriates working for Japanese companies, which also shows that the increase in Japanese nationals in Germany is primarily in non-manufacturing, with a corresponding decline in Japanese nationals working in non-manufacturing in the UK.

*This is the number of individual incorporated companies in 2018 – if you include all branches, and multiple subsidiaries, the figure is 966 Japanese entities in the UK compared to 1,839 in Germany as of Oct 2018 MOFA report

** Based on later conversations with the British Council, this steep drop in Japanese students coming to the UK may well be to do with changes in visa categories that are being monitored rather than an actual decline – most Japanese students prefer to study abroad for less than a year.

The original version of this article can be found in “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” available as a paperback and Kindle ebook on Amazon.

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Japanese companies in Europe say Brexit is their biggest worry for 2020

The annual Japan External Trade Relations Organisation (JETRO) survey of Japanese companies in Europe reveals that over 70% of Japanese companies expect their European operations to be profitable for the fifth year running, but concerns over an economic downturn in the region are higher than in previous years. Brexit came top of the list of management worries – selected by 56.5% of Japanese companies in Europe.

31% say Brexit has had a negative impact on their business so far, and 37.7% are expecting a negative impact in the future. 3.7% felt Brexit has had a positive impact on their business both now and will do in the future. A negative impact was felt by 54% of Japanese companies in the UK both now and in the future, with 2.1% of Japanese companies saying Brexit has had a positive impact and only 0.5% expecting it to have a positive impact in the future.

Brexit

More than half of the 842 companies who responded cited Brexit as their biggest management concern, outstripping the perennial headache of recruiting and retaining employees. Unsurprisingly the group that was most worried was the manufacturing sector in the UK – but the services sector in Ireland and the UK also ranked Brexit highly as a concern. Nearly 70% of Japanese companies in Poland and Portugal picked Brexit as a key issue – significantly higher than the average for Japanese companies across Europe.

54% of Germany based Japanese manufacturers chose Brexit as their primary concern, but interestingly, the non-manufacturing sector in Germany was even more concerned by Brexit (59%). For all groups, the short term disruption from a no deal Brexit was the main reason for concern and the second biggest issue was the future relationship of the UK and the EU.

Japanese companies in the UK were worried about the impact Brexit would have on the UK economy, a cheapening £ making imports more expensive, changes to the UK regulatory and legal environment and exports to non-UK EU. Japanese companies in non-UK EU countries were most worried about exports to the UK, but also the impact of Brexit on the UK economy and on the EU economy.

Around 90% of Japanese companies were concerned about disruption to logistics and customs processes between EU and UK, considerably higher than concerns about tariffs being imposed (65%).

Japanese companies in the UK focused on freedom of movement of their employees

The worries about UK regulatory and legal changes were mostly focused on changes to the freedom of movement of people between the UK and EU. Over 50% of Japanese companies in the UK said this was their main concern, particularly those in the services sector.

In terms of countermeasures – 22% said they had either implemented or were implementing their contingency plans – particularly regarding regulatory and legal changes. Compliance with the REACH regulations for the chemicals industry and setting up a new operation were most cited as steps taken. Around 12% of UK based Japanese companies have or are in the middle of reorganising their supply chain and logistics and 4.4% have or are in the middle of reviewing their manufacturing organisation and 2.4% have or are reviewing their R&D structure. The most frequently cited measure taken by Japanese companies in non-UK EU was to secure financial passporting into non-UK EU.

Relocation from UK to EU (but some purchasing functions coming to UK)

In terms of moving out of the UK, the survey found that 3 companies had moved their EU regional HQ completely out of the UK, to Germany, and 10 had partially moved out – 5 to Germany, 3 to the Netherlands and 2 to Luxembourg. In 2015 19 companies said they wanted to expand their regional coordination function in the UK, compared to only 2 in 2019. More companies were expanding their regional HQs in Germany, Netherlands, France and Spain.

3 companies had moved their sales coordination out of the UK, to Germany, Czech Republic and Poland, 4 had partially shifted it, to Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. 2 companies had moved all their manufacturing out of the UK – 1 to Poland and one to Japan. 1 had partially moved their manufacturing to Hungary. Only 1 company had moved their R&D out of the UK, to Switzerland. 4 companies had moved their procurement function from the UK to Czech Republic, Italy, Spain and one company had moved their procurement function to the UK, from Asia.

4 companies are investigating moving their regional HQ from the UK to Germany and Italy, 2 partially moving their HQ to France and Czech Republic. 3 companies are considering moving their sales coordination to Germany and Italy or partially to Germany, France or Belgium.

1 company is considering moving all manufacturing to Japan, and 9 companies are considering partial relocation to Hungary, Germany, Czech Republic, Romania, Japan or elsewhere in Europe. 2 companies are considering wholly or partially moving their R&D to Germany or elsewhere in Europe.

14 companies in the UK are expecting to expand their high value added manufacturing in the UK, down from 25 in 2015 whereas 32 Japanese companies in Germany are expanding their high value added manufacturing. The Netherlands has become the third main host for Japanese high end manufacturing – 12 are expecting to expand their manufacturing there compared to only 2 in 2015.

12 companies are considering moving their procurement to Poland, Italy, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Asia or elsewhere in the EU. 3 companies are considering moving procurement to the UK from the EU, Poland, Portugal. 3 other companies are looking to move their procurement entirely out of Europe to countries such as South Korea or China.

The EPA is encouraging Japanese imports to EU

65.5% of Japanese companies who were importing from Japan to the EU and 53.1% of Japanese companies exporting to Japan from the EU said they were taking advantage of the EPA. Particularly notable were 80% of Japanese companies based in Italy (both importers and exporters) and 70% of Japanese companies in Spain. 62% of UK based Japanese companies were using the EPA to import from Japan (a lower proportion than Italy, Czech Republic, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany).

100% of Japanese companies in the logistics/warehousing, plastic components, rubber products sectors say they are using the EPA and over 70% of Japanese companies in the metal products, textiles, automotive parts, wholesalers, food and seafood processing sectors are using the EPA to import from Japan.

Sectors most making use of the EPA to export from the EU to Japan were the logistics/warehousing, automotive parts and wholesale sectors.

Overall, Japanese companies in the EU are importing 32.6% of their parts and raw materials (by value) from Japan, 1.2% up on the previous year – Japanese companies in Germany were importing the highest share of their procurement from Japan by value – 46.6%. Over 23% of Japanese companies in the EU expect to expand their procurement from Japan, particularly the services sector with 47.8% of wholesale and retail companies saying they will increase their purchases from Japan.

Economic outlook for Europe

Japanese manufacturers are however more pessimistic about prospects for 2020 than they were in 2019, with 36.7% expecting their profitability to worsen, compared to 26.6% expecting their profitability to improve. The causes differ from Western Europe to Eastern Europe – manufacturers in Western Europe expect falling demand to be the key factor whereas in Eastern Europe the primary concern is rising labour costs.

Around a third of Japanese companies are optimistic about the economic prospects in 2020 for the countries they are operating in, which is considerably down on the 57% who were optimistic for 2019 – this pessimism was particularly strong for Western European based manufacturing.

Hiring and retaining workers continues to be a headache for Japanese companies. This is especially an issue in Central and Eastern Europe and particularly at management level in Western Europe and at factory worker level in Central and Eastern Europe.

Around 50-55% of Japanese companies in Europe have or expect to maintain current employee levels – over a third have or expect to increase their workforce. 16% cut their workforce in the past year but only 11.3% expect to do so in 2020.

Strengthening selling to EU as a region

JETRO also sees evidence that Japanese companies are strengthening their approach to selling to the EU as a region, rather than individual countries. For the first time in their surveys, “The EU” outstripped Germany and Poland as the market that Japanese companies saw as the most promising for sales. Maybe this is another – psychological rather than regulatory – impact of the EPA.

Japanese companies say that strengthening their company’s brand, developing and strengthening the technical skills of their employees (particularly in Eastern Europe) and investing further in research and development are key to increasing sales in Europe.

So, as I have often said, Japanese companies are having to find ways to retain their integrity in a Europe and a world which is also dis-integrating, and Brexit is accelerating that process.

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Japanese corporate integrity in a disintegrating Europe

I’ve made a screencast (12 minutes with captions – ably edited by my son) of my keynote speech at a Dutch Embassy event for Japanese companies on a clipper ship on the Thames last month. It looks at the challenges facing Japanese companies trying to build their employer brands in a disintegrating Europe. I explain how difficult is is for Japanese companies to build ‘virtual trust’ across Europe when they are used to implicit communication, sticking to Japanese processes and working as homogenous, Japanese speaking teams huddled into one office.

I introduce the five competencies Japanese companies and their employees need to build trust across cultures – ability to communicate, understanding mutual interests, respecting European and Japanese processes and regulations, being reliable and accountable and having a shared vision and values. You can also find them in my book “Shinrai: Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe” available as a paperback and Kindle ebook on Amazon.

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Brexit and Japanese jobs in the UK – growing by acquisition or “new” jobs?

Those looking for “despite Brexit” good news may be reassured that employment in the UK by the biggest Japanese companies has grown by 22% since 2014/5, right in line with the growth in Japanese jobs across Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). About a quarter of the 750,000 people we estimate work for Japanese companies in the region are working in the UK, and so far there is no obvious divergence between the UK and the rest of EMEA in terms of overall job growth.

Big ticket acquisitions are the main driver of Japanese growth in the UK

But as we pointed out in previous posts looking at the trends across Europe, a distinction needs to be made between “new jobs” created in EMEA by Japanese greenfield investment, and investments which are acquisitions of existing jobs. Eastern Europe is the beneficiary of the former, particularly for the automotive sector, whereas the UK has been the target of the latter with big ticket acquisitions like SoftBank acquiring ARM, Mitsui Sumitomo acquiring Amlin, Sumitomo Rubber acquiring Micheldever, and NEC acquiring Northgate Public Services as well as Outsourcing acquiring various staffing and outsourcing companies.

Where are the “new jobs”?

These acquisitions account for the new entrants to the Top 30 ranking we have compiled below. They push out Fujifilm, Sumitomo Corporation, Japan Tobacco (who shut their factory in Northern Ireland last year) and Toshiba. The original Top 30 in 2014/5 have grown a more modest 10% if the acquisitive newcomers are not included. One of the highest climbers from the original 2014/5 ranking is the main Japanese creator of new jobs in the UK- Hitachi – in particular via their rail manufacturing and assembly plant at Newton Aycliffe.

There has not been a decline in automotive sector jobs in the UK – yet – however. In fact quite the reverse – there has been some growth in jobs in all three of the big Japanese car companies. But the trend is clear, as pointed out in previous posts, that even without Brexit, the drift of investment and jobs in the automotive sector is eastwards and to Africa. It’s easy to see how British people in those areas where Japanese automotive supply chains are active could blame the EU for job losses. Even though there actually weren’t that many EU grants enabling Japanese companies to transfer production from the UK to Eastern Europe – despite the rumours – merely by being members of the Single Market, and having lower labour costs, Eastern European countries are an obvious destination for new manufacturing investment.

Will Japan’s investment in the UK services sector be Brexit proof?

The investment in the UK by Japanese companies over the past three years has largely been through acquisitions in the services sector. This is not surprising, as services are 80% of the UK’s GDP and the UK’s comparative advantage in the region. It is also relatively Brexit proof in the sense that services sector investment will not be directly affected by any supply chain disruptions. Clearly if the UK economy takes a hit from Brexit, however, this will dampen demand for services. There has also been a shift of regional headquarters away from the UK by Panasonic and Sony and others, and of financial services companies, but as yet this has not hit UK jobs.

Eastern Europe has also been attractive to Japanese companies for business process outsourcing. Although Fujitsu is still – just – the top employer in the UK, employee numbers have dropped 29% – and there are now 13,000 people working for its service centres in Poland. NTT and its subsidiary NTT Data has also shot up the Top 30 both for the UK and the EMEA region – again through acquisitions – and has decided to base its new global ex-Japan headquarters in the UK.

Infrastructure, energy, transport should be the future for Japanese jobs in the UK

The UK’s strength as a global services provider will not disappear overnight, however hard the Brexit. But it’s hard to imagine how the kinds of secure, high quality automotive manufacturing jobs that those who voted for Brexit might have wanted to see return to the UK will come back, however soft the Brexit. The potential sunlit upland is in infrastructure – energy and transport. These sectors were needing investment regardless of whether the UK is in or out of the EU and are not so reliant on just in time supply chains across the region. Transport, environment and energy are areas where cooperation and financing on an EU-wide basis makes business and environmental sense though. But unfortunately Brexit has provided a distraction that has resulted in Hitachi freezing its Horizon nuclear power projects in Wales and Gloucestershire from lack of government financial support, and the recently called review of HS2 must also be giving Hitachi’s rail business and other Japanese executives cause for concern. Risk averse Japanese companies are not going to want to make multi million investments in infrastructure projects in a country which is politically unstable and unreliable.

	Top 30 Japanese employers in the UK – 2015-8
Rank 2017/8	Rank 2014/5	Company	UK employees 2017-8	UK employees 2014/5	% change UK 2014-8
1	1	Fujitsu	8,351	11,694	-29%
2	2	Nissan	8,190	7,440	10%
3	9	Hitachi	7,210	2,747	162%
4	4	Honda	7,062	5,268	34%
5	3	Itochu*	6,737	6,779	-1%
6	14	Dentsu*	4,394	2,127	107%
7	7	Ricoh	3,506	3,331	5%
8	6	Toyota	3,467	3,352	3%
9	5	Sony	3,410	3,777	-10%
10	10	Canon	2,828	2,643	7%
11	8	Mitsubishi Corp*	2,815	3,085	-9%
12	18	NTT	2,569	1,779	44%
13	13	Marubeni	2,549	2,137	19%
14	–	Mitsui Sumitomo & Aioi Nissay Dowa	2,384	305	682%
15	15	Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Goup	2,310	2,100	10%
16	11	Nomura	2,208	2,628	-16%
17	19	Calsonic Kansei	2,189	1,571	39%
18	12	NSG	2,140	2,348	-9%
19	16	Denso	1,986	1,930	3%
20	17	NYK Group	1,911	1,780	7%
21	–	Sumitomo Rubber	1,762	92	1815%
22	–	NEC	1,725	297	481%
23	25	Konica Minolta	1,657	1,278	30%
24	23	Mitsubishi Electric	1,610	1,344	20%
25	–	Outsourcing	1,595	10	15850%
26	22	Olympus	1,589	1,368	16%
27	21	SMFG	1,569	1,372	14%
28	29	Mizuho	1,434	1,060	35%
29	26	Brother Industries	1,411	1,254	13%
30	27	Unipres	1,396	1,095	27%
			92,568	76,896	20%
	*Estimates for EMEA/Europe as official figures not available
	© Rudlin Consulting Ltd If you would like more detailed analyses, by sector or individual companies, please contact pernillerudlinrudlinconsultingcom

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Top 30 Japanese companies in Europe – who’s in, who’s out and which countries are benefitting

In my previous post I looked at the growth drivers or otherwise at the top 5 largest Japanese companies in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) – Yazaki, Sumitomo Electric Industries, NTT Data, Fujitsu and Canon. Overall employee growth for the largest Japanese companies in the region has been a healthy 22% over three years (see table below). But of the top 5, only NTT Data has beaten this average.

Yazaki and Sumitomo Electric Industries are automotive manufacturers who have consolidated their position as the biggest employers by further greenfield investments in new plants in Moldova, Serbia and Bulgaria over the past three years.

Of the other three, IT services company NTT Data has more than doubled in size over the past three years in the region through acquisitions. Fujitsu, however, has shrunk as it shifts from hardware manufacture and sales to IT services. Canon has grown by 15%, partly through taking on Toshiba Medical Systems.

Toyota group strength in Europe

The rest of the Top 30 shows a similar pattern – the automotive sector growing through greenfield investment in new or expanding plants, with the electronics/ICT sector growing through acquisition, or shrinking through consolidation and moving towards B2B in automotive and medical fields. Panasonic more than doubled in size in the region, through acquiring Spanish automotive company Ficosa and Belgian technology company Zetes.

Honda’s employee total in EMEA hardly changed over three years, Nissan’s only grew 2% whereas Toyota grew 16% – which shows something about the relative fortunes of those car brands in the region recently. Toyota will presumably expand further once it fully takes over the joint venture factory with PSA in the Czech Republic. Other Toyota group companies have also expanded – such as Denso, Toyota Industries and Toyota Tsusho via its French/African trading company CFAO acquired in 2012.

Bridgestone employee numbers have grown 43% partly through acquisitions in France but also expansion and greenfield investment in Eastern Europe and Russia. Japanese automotive glass manufacturers (who also make architectural glass) Asahi Glass grew 33% but Nippon Sheet Glass only expanded its employees by 4% – still recovering from the bad timing and heavy debts of its acquisition of Pilkington Glass in 2006.

Fastest growing, fastest shrinking companies

The fastest growing Japanese employer in the region was electric motor manufacturer Nidec – more than tripling in size over the past three years, having been on a spending spree around the world – with around 25 acquisitions, many of them in Europe, since 2015. Nidec is the only new entrant into the top 30 over the three years, pushing out Fast Retailing (owner of Uniqlo, Comptoir des Cotonniers, Princesse TamTam etc). Fast Retailing grew too, opening new Uniqlo stores in Spain, Belgium, Sweden and the Netherlands in the past couple of years, with further stores to come in Italy and Denmark.

Sony and Ricoh have both shrunk by over 10%, however, with neither making any major acquisitions. Konica Minolta, which grew 25%, acquired various IT services providers in Germany, France, UK and the Czech Republic. Bubbling under the Top 30, at #31, NEC also grew rapidly, by 47%, after the acquisition of IT services companies like KMD in Denmark and Northgate Public Services in the UK.

European hot spots

Climate change has sparked investments from Mitsubishi Electric and Daikin in European air conditioning manufacturing and alternative energy production. Mitsubishi Electric has an air conditioning factory in Scotland employing 1000 people and expressed quite clearly its concerns regarding Brexit to a parliamentary committee in 2018 (by the way, I think there must be a typo in the submission, as it says 20% of its UK employees are EEA, which is considerably more than the figure of 13 they state). In December 2017 it announced it had started production of airconditioners at its new factory in Turkey.

So yes, it’s true that the UK has taken a ‘lion’s share’ of Japanese investment in recent years and therefore Japanese company employment in the EU. I estimate around 160,000 jobs out of 750,000 or so in the region (21%) are in the UK. But this share of investment is largely due to big ticket acquisitions by Japanese companies in the UK (SoftBank/ARM, MS Amlin etc) and also that investment in real estate is counted as “greenfield” investment.

Around a quarter of Japanese jobs in the region are in the automotive sector, and they’re moving eastwards

If we look at greenfield investment, largely in manufacturing, generating thousands of new jobs, with the exception of Hitachi’s rail factory in the UK, this has been going to Eastern Europe, CIS, Turkey and North Africa. The automotive sector is particularly key. I estimate around 250,000 of the 750,000 or so people employed by Japanese companies in the region are in the automotive sector. Brexit is giving extra impetus to automotive and other supply chain manufacturing jobs to accelerate their move eastwards.

Top 30 Japanese employers in EMEA 2018
Rank 2018	Rank 2015	Company	Total global employees 2017/8	no in EMEA 2017/8	% in EMEA 2017/8	Employee growth 2015-2018
1	1	Sumitomo Electric Industries	255,133	60,537	23.7%	7%
2	2	Yazaki	306,118	57,661	18.8%	19%
3	9	NTT Data	118,000	36,000	30.5%	140%
4	3	Fujitsu	140,365	27,000	19.2%	-8%
5	4	Canon	197,776	25,623	13.0%	15%
6	5	Toyota	369,124	22,147	6%	16%
7	18	Panasonic	274,143	21,931	8%	116%
8	13	Bridgestone	142,669	17,510	12.3%	43%
9	10	Asahi Glass	53,224	17,400	33%	19%
10	8	Toyota Tsusho*	56,827	17,000	29.9%	10%
11	7	Nissan	138,910	16,807	12%	2%
12	11	Denso	171,992	16,688	10%	15%
13	6	Ricoh	97,878	16,680	17.0%	-10%
14	16	Hitachi	307,275	16,000	5.2%	36%
15	14	JT Group	57,963	15,410	26.6%	27%
16	30	Nidec	107,554	12,917	12%	223%
17	15	NSG	26,957	12,500	46%	4%
18	17	Dentsu*	62,608	12,176	19.4%	11%
19	21	Toyota Industries	61,152	11,837	19.4%	48%
20	12	Sony	117,300	11,730	10.0%	-11%
21	19	Konica Minolta	43,299	10,825	25.0%	20%
22	24	Kyocera Group	75,940	10,024	13.2%	40%
23	25	Daikin	70,263	9,227	13.1%	36%
24	20	Honda	215,638	8,591	4.0%	0%
25	23	JTEKT	49589	8,128	16.4%	12%
26	26	TDK	102,883	8,045	7.8%	20%
27	22	Itochu*	102,086	7,382	7.2%	-5%
28	27	Olympus	35,124	7,353	20.9%	15%
29	31	Mitsubishi Electric	142,340	7,300	5.1%	46%
30	28	Mitsubishi Corporation	77,476	7,189	9.3%	19%

		TOTAL	3,977,606	529,619	13.3%	22%
		*based on estimates as official figures not disclosed
pernillerudlinrudlinconsultingcom"}">© Rudlin Consulting Ltd 2019 If you would like more detailed analyses, by sector or individual companies, please contact pernillerudlinrudlinconsultingcom

Pernille Rudlin’s latest book, Shinrai:Japanese Corporate Integrity in a Disintegrating Europe is available on Amazon.

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Brexit for Hitachi – like bees on a tearful face

We blogged earlier this year that Alistair Dormer, first foreign EVP of Hitachi and former CEO of Hitachi Rail in the UK might be in line to become the next (and first foreign) president of Hitachi Japan.

It seems – according to Diamond magazine – that the current chairman of Hitachi, Hiroaki Nakanishi, has deliberately set up a competition between Dormer and the other candidate, Koji Kojima. Dormer is now heading up the global elevator and rail business, where 80% of sales are overseas. Kojima is leading Hitachi’s “internet of things” business, which also means reviving the stagnating home appliance business in Japan.

The Hitachi rail factory in Newton Aycliffe, UK assembles carriages from domestic and imported parts from Japan and elsewhere to sell locally and re-export. It is “plagued by the risk of Brexit”, says Diamond magazine. On top of which losing the London deep tube rail bid to Siemens was like “bees on a tearful face” – a Japanese expression meaning adding to add insult to injury, or to make matters worse. The Newton Aycliffe plant is currently finishing back orders, and if it does not win any further projects, will have to start reducing employee numbers.

Dormer moved to Tokyo after being made EVP and is, according to a Hitachi official, “rapidly gaining popularity” with his British sense of humor and gentle handling of employees who are not good at English – which I take to mean he has not, thankfully, imported any British sarcasm, irony or bantz.

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A no deal Brexit will put the boot in for Japanese companies in the UK

My first job at Mitsubishi Corporation was exporting British made shoes from companies like Trickers and Crockett & Jones to Japan. They are high end shoes anyway, and Japanese tariffs of 30% on shoe imports certainly pushed them even further upmarket. So when I was in Japan last month I was happy to see that one of our customers still had its Trading Post flagship shop in Aoyama, despite the so-called two lost decades in terms of economic growth. They must be one of the few businesses enjoying the fact that Brexit delays have improved their profit margins. Thanks to the new EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, tariffs on European shoe exports to Japan were reduced to 21% from February of this year. They will eventually be eliminated over the next 10 years.

Trickers and Crockett & Jones are presumably shipping out shoes to Japan as fast as they can make them while the UK’s membership of the EU lasts. Although Japan has entered discussions with the UK on a trade deal, they have made it clear that they are not going to concede as much as they did to the EU, and leather goods is one of the categories they are going to use as a bargaining weapon.

No roll over is bad for British shoes, cheese and booze

So a no deal Brexit or a Brexit before a UK-Japan free trade agreement is struck is bad news for the UK shoe industry, (and British cheese makers and whisky distillers will also miss out on the EPA’s tariff reductions). But not rolling over the EU-Japan EPA in to a UK-Japan trade agreement as soon as the UK leaves the EU will only have a small direct impact on both economies. According to a JETRO survey of over 3,000 Japanese companies, from March of this year, only 8.6% import from the UK, compared to 24.1% importing from Western Europe (excluding the UK) 66.2% from China and 24.2% from the USA.

Conversely, 22% of Japanese companies export to the UK, compared to 35% exporting to non-UK Western Europe, 49.6% to the USA and 59% to China. It’s obvious from these figures why the US-China trade war is more concerning to Japan than Brexit.

You could argue that a UK-Japan free trade agreement would improve those percentages, but that’s an awful lot of shoes, cheese and booze to make any impact. Furthermore, a lot of the imports and exports between the UK and Japan may be EU related, rather than purely bilateral. Think car parts from Japan to build cars for European consumers, or UK generated professional services for a Japanese EU headquarters and its European subsidiaries.

But no deal with the EU is even more of a headache for Japanese companies in the UK

Japanese companies that have a presence in the UK (just under 10% of the companies surveyed) have made it very clear that a No (UK-EU) Deal Brexit would be a disaster for them – far more than the UK no longer being part of the EU-Japan EPA. As frequently pointed out, they invested in the UK as a gateway to the rest of Europe.

45% of the turnover of Japanese companies in the UK is sales to Europe according to figures from the annual reports of the 200 or so who give regional breakdowns of sales. The range is anywhere from close to 0% for companies selling everything from lighting to metal pressing to seeds just to the UK, through to 100% – largely automotive parts manufacturers who export almost all of their production to Europe, or at least sell it via their European headquarters in continental Europe.

Many of those who are focused on domestic UK sales are importing from Japan, China and Asia, or are at the end of a complex supply chain stretching across Europe. Some are not involved in trade of goods at all – for example NTT Data and Building Design Partnership. The latter is one of the many of the services sector companies that have recently become Japan-owned via acquisition. NTT is aiming to grow its UK government business after Brexit, but if the UK economy tanks thanks to a no deal, it may have to wait a while. A JETRO survey last year highlighted that a UK economic slump because of Brexit was at the top of the list of concerns for Japanese companies in the UK and the rest of the EU, even more than changes in regulation or currency fluctuations.

The UK looks to lose its crown as the top European destination for Japanese acquisitions

Japanese acquisitions of British companies continued after the referendum, but the 2019 JETRO survey shows that it is likely the UK will lose its crown as the top destination in the EU for Japanese foreign direct investment. Non-UK Western Europe is in the top five destinations for expanding business for manufacturing textiles, clothing, foods, petrochemicals/plastics, electrical machinery, electronic components, fine engineering and also specialist services. The UK does not feature at all in the top five of any of these sectors.

The UK’s service sector functions as a gateway to Europe is still the biggest influence on Japanese investment – the UK is a top 20 destination for expanding services such as regional coordination(#9), logistics (#13), R&D (#14), sales (#15) and localisation (#17), as well as high value added manufacturing (#17). However, non-UK Western Europe ranks higher and is in the top 10 destinations for all of these categories.

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Brexit yanks the lid off some stinky realities for Japanese business in the UK

My least favourite Japanese expression is “kusai mono ni futa” – when it stinks, put a lid on it. It is at the root of many Japanese corporate governance scandals. Mistakes are made or problems surface and instead of exposing them and causing loss of face all round, they are swept under the carpet, in the hope that they will somehow magically disappear. But of course stinky things with lids on just get stinkier.

On the face of it, there was nothing stinky about Japanese companies in the UK. The very fact that the UK was such an easy place to do business – on a European and global scale – lulled Japanese companies into complacency. Japanese expatriates like living in the UK, particularly around London, where the vast majority of Japanese business people are based. A couple of years’ traineeship in London is also a great incentive to lure scarce young English speaking Japanese into your graduate recruitment scheme.

Brexit exposed complacency about profitability in the UK

Over 125 Japanese companies in the UK are the European headquarters, employing over 25,000 people (of the 160,000 UK employees in total who work for 1000 Japanese companies), with a combined turnover of over £40bn. Much of that turnover derived from management fees from Japan headquarters, dividends from European subsidiaries or royalties from intellectual property, so the profitability or otherwise of the UK business itself was not so exposed.

Profitability in manufacturing is far more obvious. Nissan, Honda and Toyota’s factories in the UK had high levels of productivity – they had to be to win the right to make each new model. But Honda never managed to sell enough of its cars in Europe for Swindon to reach full capacity. The car industry is going through a shift away from petrol and diesel to electric. Japanese manufacturers like to be near their key markets to develop new models, and for electric vehicles, China is a far bigger and more promising market than Europe. The supply chains for electric vehicles are more developed and close knit in their Japan base.

Brexit yanked the lid off some stinky realities. As the JETRO annual survey on business conditions for Japanese companies in Europe details, 60% of UK based Japanese companies predicted the future impact of Brexit on their business would be negative, and 25% said it had had a negative impact already. Most cited the threat to the supply chain of customs duties and customs procedures or divergence in regulations being introduced as their top concerns.

Over 90% of Japanese companies could withdraw their European headquarters from the UK because of Brexit

61% said that they had already decided to relocate/withdraw or had already relocated or withdrawn certain functions from their regional headquarters in the UK and another 32% are considering it – mostly as a partial relocation to another EU member state. As is well known, Panasonic and Sony have already done this. It was not just the threat of Brexit disrupting invoicing and customs clearance, but also in response as much to the new Japanese tax haven law. The UK’s lowering of the corporation tax rate of 17% to show Global Britain was still open for business meant revenue from dividends and royalties received in the UK would be considered as tax avoidance by the Japanese tax authorities.

More than two thirds of Japanese companies could withdraw their European sales functions from the UK

29% of Japanese companies in the UK have decided to relocate/withdraw or have already relocated/withdrawn their sales functions and a further 38% are considering doing so. Sharp Electronics has moved their inventory to Sharp in France along with responsibility for logistics and warehousing. Various automotive sector companies have moved customer accounts and product lines to Germany.

Moving sales or regional headquarter functions out of the UK does not have an immediate impact on jobs in the UK. In fact labour shortage is cited as the top concern for Japanese companies across Europe. So they are likely to try to hang on to the employees they have, and the regional management will just operate in a much more virtual way – Sharp says its UK base will still have an executive/board level responsibility for Europe, as that is where its European executives are currently based. For now.

Nearly two-thirds of Japanese manufacturers are withdrawing or considering withdrawing manufacturing from the UK

33% of Japanese manufacturers have decided to relocate or withdraw or have relocated or withdrawn their manufacturing from the UK and 30% are considering doing so. This may seem surprisingly low given the fuss made over the car companies and their supply chains being impacted by Brexit. But actually most Japanese manufacturers have alternative plants in Europe they can use if necessary. Those who do not are usually manufacturing highly specialised products that are less supply chain time critical, or for UK sales only or that they are presumably confident they can sell across Europe no matter what barriers there are.

No deal preparations

The JETRO survey did not specify the type of Brexit when asking Japanese companies in Europe in general about relocation or withdrawal plans, but did ask if any countermeasures had been taken for a no deal Brexit. Just over 10% of all Japanese companies – in the UK and Europe – had already made plans or were currently making plans. A further 15% of Japanese companies in the UK were intending to plan for no deal but only 4% of non UK EU companies were intending to plan (this was as of October 2018). The most popular countermeasure was stockpiling (21%), followed by reorganising functions within the company group (10%).

Financial services already prepared for all possibilities

All the Japanese financial services companies that would be affected by Brexit have already put their plans into action – most now have licenses for the UK and obtained financial passporting or licenses in the EU as necessary. Again, having to take a hard, cold look at their European operations has taken the lid off some long standing whiffy problems, particularly for Nomura, which looks like it will be shutting down its global wholesale side in London entirely.

No rollover and then there were none

Stockpiling as the main countermeasure for a no deal Brexit assumes that eventually a deal will be reached, before the stocks run out. But such deals take time. The EU-Japan European Partnership Agreement (EPA) started in 2013, finalised at the end of 2017, signed off in July 2018, and was in force from February 2019. Known as cars for cheese – it was actually meant to promote food and car exports both ways. Japan has already been promoting European wines and cheeses in its supermarkets and announced the first shipment of fully farmed tuna to Europe under the EPA agreement.

Similarly, reduction on tariffs on cars and car parts was meant to protect Japanese branded manufacturing in Europe (because they could easily import Japan manufactured parts) and help European car manufacturers export more cars to Japan.

Hard stinky cheese

If a no deal Brexit happens, although Japan started talks with the UK about rolling over the EPA, it has stated this would not be a cut and paste job. Japan is clear that it expects more concessions from the UK than in the EU deal – including cheese and cars. So British cheese makers may find their exports to Japan have a longer time to ripen than they were planning, in the event of a no deal.

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Last updated by Pernille Rudlin at 2020-07-10.