Category: Trade

Japanese companies in the UK 7 years on – the new third phase

Executive summary

In the seven years since the Brexit referendum, the benefits of Japanese long term planning for resilience have become clear. Although employment by Japanese companies in the UK has fallen since 2018/9, this is largely in the automotive sector, triggered by the closure of the Honda Swindon plant. Non-automotive manufacturing employment and investment have stayed steady, but there have been no new manufacturing companies coming to the UK.

Employment in the wholesale sector has also fallen, as Japanese companies move their European logistics, warehousing and coordination functions to the EU. There has been significant disinvestment from the UK financial sector, but again employment seems to have held steady.

Germany has almost caught up with the UK as the largest host of Japanese companies in the EU and has overtaken the UK as the largest host of Japanese corporate expatriates.

Now the smoke and fog of Britain’s departure from the EU, and the pandemic have cleared, a new third phase of Japanese investment is taking shape. It is more focused on geopolitical concerns around climate change, energy, defence and security. The UK is seen as an important partner in this, but needs to ensure that it strengthens its long term policy commitments to these sectors, which require large investments and the support of host communities, as well as collaboration and synchronization with the EU, Africa and the Middle East.

Contents

Employment by Japanese companies in the UK grew to 2018/9, then shrank since

Germany has nearly caught up with the UK as a host of Japanese companies

More company closures in the UK than in Germany

A similar number of new Japanese companies opened in the UK and Germany since

UK still the target of Japanese M&A, but on a smaller scale than before

Switzerland overtakes the UK as largest net recipient of Japanese investment in Europe

Manufacturing employment holding steady, apart from the automotive sector 

Net disinvestment in UK financial services sector, although employment remains steady

Germany has overtaken the UK become the largest host to Japanese corporate expatriates in Europe

What does it all mean? An acceleration of trends, new and old

 

Employment by Japanese companies in the UK grew to 2018/9, then shrank since

There were 98,000 people employed by Japan owned companies in the UK, according to the Toyo Keizai[1] database published April 2023, compared to 106,000 in 2015/6.

The Rudlin Consulting database, which includes more companies who have a Japanese owner through acquisition, shows around 160,000 employees for 2021/2, up slightly from 156,000 in 2015/6.

Both sets of data show that employee numbers reached a peak in 2018/9 and have fallen since. This is a different pattern to what has happened in France and Germany, where the employee numbers peaked in 2020/1, but have fallen since. The Netherlands shows somewhat bumpy growth.

Looking at the employment data by sector, it seems the shrinkage in employment in the UK is almost entirely due to the decline in the automotive sector, where around 11,000 jobs have been lost in manufacturing and wholesale.

 

Germany has nearly caught up with the UK as a host of Japanese companies

Toyo Keizai estimates there were 875 Japanese incorporated subsidiaries in the UK in 2015/6 compared to 764 in Germany. By 2022/3 there were 982 Japanese incorporated subsidiaries in the UK, compared to 975 in Germany.

Rudlin Consulting estimates also include branches and more subsidiaries acquired through acquisition than Toyo Keizai. As of June 2023, we estimate there are 1,113 Japan owned organisations in Germany, compared to 1,151 in the UK.

 

More company closures in the UK than in Germany

48 companies closed in Germany since 2018 and 145 closed in the UK since 2017. The biggest sectoral net loss was in wholesale in the UK. A likely explanation is that many companies were dissolved or turned into branches, once they lost their European wholesale coordination functions, with warehousing and logistics focused more on the EU single market.

  • 26 of the UK closures were in the automotive sector
  • 41 were services
  • 39 were wholesale
  • 27 were manufacturing companies
  • 11 were in the IT sector
  • 9 financial
  • 8 logistics
  • 6 chemicals
  • 4 retail
  • 4 food

(some companies in multiple categories).

Many of these closures were due to consolidation and mergers, rather than outright withdrawal from the UK.

A similar number of new Japanese companies opened in the UK and Germany since 2017

64 new companies were established in Germany since 2017, compared to 63 new companies in the UK (of which 4 divested or closed since):

Of the 63 new companies in the UK:

  • 35 were in the services sector
  • 14 in wholesale sector
  • 6 in IT
  • 6 in the financial services sector
  • 3 in manufacturing
  • 3 in energy – storage, renewables, production
  • 1 in logistics (following merger of container businesses of several Japanese companies)
  • 1 in automotive (Highly Marelli, formed from merger with Calsonic Kansei)

(some companies in multiple categories)

UK still the target of Japanese M&A, but on a smaller scale than before

We have tracked 179 companies coming under Japanese ownership in the UK from 2017 to 2023 to date compared to 79 in Germany. These are not exhaustive numbers, and may well reflect a UK bias.

Furthermore, many of the acquisitions were not made directly of British or German companies, but rather of US or other European headquartered companies, which have subsidiaries in the UK or Germany. There may also be recent acquisitions which have not been identified yet.

With those caveats in mind, it does seem to be that majority (123 of the 179 UK acquisitions) were made over the three years from 2017-2019, and since then the rate has been more around 25 companies a year or fewer. There seems to be a similar trend in Germany.

The biggest acquisitions across Europe since 2017 have been:

  • Takeda’s acquisition of Irish pharmaceutical company (London listed) Shire for $64bn in 2019
  • Hitachi’s acquisition of Swiss company ABB’s Power Grids business for $11bn in 2020/2
  • Renesas acquisition of US founded, UK domiciled semiconductor company Dialog in 2021 for $5.9bn
  • Mitsubishi Corporation’s acquisition of Dutch energy company Eneco for $4.4bn
  • Taisho’s acquisition of French pharmaceutical manufacturer UPSA SAS for $1.6n from Bristol-Myers Squibb.
  • Hitachi Rail’s acquisition of Italy’s Ansaldo STS (1.5bn euros) from 2015 to 2019
  • Nidec’s $1.2bn 2017 acquisition of Emerson Electric’s motors, drives and power generation businesses, which included the Welsh drives make Control Techniques and the French motor manufacturer, Leroy-Somer.
  • Toyota Industries’ acquisition of Dutch logistics company Vanderlande for $1.3bn in 2017
  • NEC’s acquisition of Danish IT company KMD in 2018/9 for $1.2bn
  • Fujifilm acquisition of US company Biogen’s Hillerod manufacturing in Denmark for $930m in 2019

In the past, British companies have often been the target of the largest M&A deals, such as SoftBank acquiring ARM, NSG acquiring Pilkington Glass and various acquisitions in the financial services sector. This preference does not seem to have continued, apart from the Renesas/Dialog deal, although there have been smaller scale acquisitions in sectors such as recruitment and staffing, drives, tyres, food and paper wholesale in the UK.

Switzerland overtakes the UK as largest net recipient of Japanese investment in Europe

These big deals have of course had an impact on the flow of investment from Japan into Europe, causing lumpiness in year-to-year totals.

Switzerland received more cumulative net direct investment from Japan since 2017 than the UK, which was the largest recipient of Japanese investment in Europe in the past. The large inflow into Switzerland in 2019 in the wholesale and retail sector was presumably related to Hitachi’s acquisition of the ABB power grids business. The Netherlands was the third largest recipient and Ireland the fourth largest recipient.

The net divestment from the UK in 2020 was in the communications sector and may have been related to SoftBank, as much of their investment activities is located in London. There was also net divestment from the services sector in 2018. There were no major divestments by Japanese companies in terms of selling off subsidiaries in that year, so this might represent movement of assets from UK based subsidiaries to EU based subsidiaries as part of companies such as Sony shifting ownership their intellectual property rights.

In manufacturing, investment in UK electrical machinery, food and chemicals has been greater than the investment in transportation equipment (automotive) and substantially more than in German electrical machinery, food and chemicals manufacturing over the same period.

Cumulative Japanese direct investment totals for Germany and the UK in since 2017 are: [2]

Sector Germany UK
Food manufacturing $0.8bn $9.8bn
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals manufacturing $3.1bn $7.1bn
Electrical machinery manufacturing $0.6bn $7.8bn
Transportation equipment manufacturing $9.3bn $0.8bn
Communications $0.6bn $45.3bn
Wholesale and retail $2bn $3.2bn
Finance and insurance $8.2bn -$2.3bn
Services $1.2bn -$34.5bn

As can be seen below, Ireland has had both inflows and outflows in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals manufacturing sector in 2019 and 2020, presumably related to the Takeda/Shire deal. Denmark had an outflow in 2019, which may have been related to the sale by Takeda of two factories in Denmark to Orifarm.

The data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance needs to be treated with caution, as in many cases (France and financial services sector for example) no data is given, for confidentiality reasons.

Manufacturing employment holding steady, apart from the automotive sector

Disinvestment from the UK in the automotive sector in 2019 and 2021 was presumably related to the closure of Honda’s Swindon plant which was announced in February 2019 and finally shut down in July 2021. 20 or so Japanese automotive suppliers also ceased operations in the UK during this period.

Germany has benefited the most from Japanese investment in the automotive sector – the large inflow in 2019 may be related to Sekisui’s acquisition of Proseat’s European operations – with manufacturing in Germany, Poland and Czech Republic. The UK plant was closed in 2021.

There may have been some second hand investment in the UK automotive sector which is not reflected in the data. Belgium’s status as the second largest recipient of investment is almost certainly due to Toyota having their European headquarters there. Some of that investment may well then have made its way to Toyota’s plants in the UK.

The larger inflow of automotive investment into the UK in 2018 may have been related to Nissan starting production of the Juke at Sunderland in 2019 and then the third generation Qashqai.

Non-automotive manufacturing employment grew to 2019/20 and has held steady since.  Most of the Japanese manufacturers we looked at set up Brexit committees, planned and invested for various scenarios. They must have come to the conclusion that the cost/benefit analyses showed it made more sense to stay put and invest in mitigation measures than to shut down and transfer manufacturing elsewhere.

Net disinvestment in UK financial services sector, although employment remains steady

Although the cumulative investment by Japan into in the UK financial sector was negative from 2017 to 2022, according to Rudlin Consulting data, employment in this sector has held relatively steady. It is hard to be certain of this, as two of the three main Japanese banks are branches of the European headquarters in the Netherlands or the Japanese headquarters, so employee numbers are not disclosed.

Ireland has been a focus for Japanese aircraft leasing and related financing, which may explain why it has benefited most from Japanese financial services sector investment since 2017. For example, in 2020-2022, Japan Investment Adviser subsidiary JP Leasing Services set up a leasing company in Ireland with Airbus, acquiring several aircraft, which may  account for the large investment in 2020.

Germany has overtaken the UK become the largest host to Japanese corporate expatriates in Europe

The general trend in Japanese corporate expatriation across EMEA is downward, and does not seem to have picked up after the pandemic, apart from in the Netherlands and the UAE. The shift of Japanese expatriates (largely based around London) is likely to be an indicator of regional headquarter functions shifting to Germany and the Netherlands, particularly in financial services and trading companies, where the density of Japanese expatriate staff is the highest.

What does it all mean? An acceleration of trends, new and old

I have, over the past seven years, tried to approach the data I gather on Japanese companies in the UK with an open mind. Nonetheless, I admit to having a Big Theory of Brexit (beyond believing it to be an unnecessary waste of time, effort and resources) which is that it accelerates trends which were already there.

So the question I wanted to answer, in looking at the data this time, was what trends were showing through, new and old.

In my history of Mitsubishi Corporation in London, examining how its business developed from 1915,[3] it became apparent that the organization had quite quickly moved from an importer/exporter trading model to a regional coordinator. It was following a well-known model of globalization in business to move from pure export to manufacturing locally and then to some kind of transnational model, with regional centers of excellence.

Japanese trading companies like Mitsubishi Corporation do not directly manufacture, but often invest in manufacturing, as Mitsubishi Corporation did, in acquiring Princes Foods in the UK in 1989. Primarily though, they are in London because they see it as an important global and regional hub, a good training ground for their rising stars to gather information and influence global policy making.

Just after Brexit became a reality, I remember attending a large gathering of senior executives of Japanese companies in the UK. The then head of Mitsubishi Corporation in Europe, Middle East and Africa spoke, making it clear that while he thought Brexit was a negative for Japanese business, the company would not be leaving the UK.

Having worked at Mitsubishi Corporation myself, including in planning and coordination, I instinctively understood this to be about the strategic value that a presence in the UK had for Mitsubishi Corporation, and other zaikai[4] Japanese companies.  Nonetheless I worried that the UK’s strategic value to Japanese companies would diminish by no longer having as much influence in the EU once it was on the outside.

The only Japanese trading company to have left the UK since 2017 is Sojitz, which is not one of the top five of Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsui, Sumitomo Corporation, Itochu and Marubeni. It has clearly decided to focus on chemicals trading, and to put that headquarters in Germany, which has traditionally been seen by Japanese companies as the regional leader in chemicals manufacturing.

Other regional headquarters to have left the UK were part of the earliest phase of globalization – the wholesalers who were importing from Japan. They have moved their regional coordination, warehousing and logistics hubs to the EU – which is why there has been significant growth in employee numbers and expatriate Japanese numbers in the Netherlands. At the same time, the overall drop in the number of Japanese expatriates across the region may well be due to how localized many of the wholesale operations have become in terms of senior management.

The second phase companies – those who opened manufacturing operations in the UK – have also shifted further out of the UK, and taken their supply chains with them. Consumer electronics manufacturing left some time ago, and the main concern had been for the automotive sector. As the analysis above shows, Germany has had by far the greater share of automotive investment in Europe since 2017, although this may be a one off, due to an acquisition. Some of the investment into Belgium may feed through to the UK via Toyota, however, and both Toyota and Nissan have not shown any signs of leaving the UK yet.

The third phase, of having regional coordination and centres of excellence, is showing through more strongly now for the UK. Now that the regional coordination which was more to do with supply chains for manufacturers, or logistics and warehousing for importing from Japan has shifted away from the UK, the UK is left with the geopolitically minded, strategic investors, in energy, transportation and telecommunications infrastructure, defence and R&D in biotech and pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

These investors are not so influenced by the search for growth overseas which characterized Japanese acquisitions in the UK and elsewhere during the lost three decades of the 1990s to the 2010s. They are driven by geopolitical concerns regarding climate change and reducing dependence on hostile states in sectors such as telecommunications, energy and digital data.

Despite the current British government’s taboo on mentioning industrial policy, it is clear that many British politicians are aware of this new phase and realise that the UK’s concerns align with Japan’s. There has been an embarrassment of former and current prime ministers and ministers at recent UK-Japan events in London. The exhibition stands at the one I attended, as a non-executive director of a Japanese soft-power initiative, Japan House London, were almost exclusively focused on renewable energy.

The recent announcement[5] by the Japanese government that they will harmonise Japanese standards for domestically produced defence equipment with US and European standards, to reduce maintenance costs and increase business opportunities for Japanese defence companies is very much in line with this new third phase. The UK, Italy and Japan have merged their fighter jet programmes and are aiming to develop a next generation fighter jet demonstrator by 2027.

It is not going to be entirely smooth – Japanese trading companies have shown no inclination to disinvest from Russian LNG projects, for example. This will have been the subject of discussions with the Japanese government in terms of impact on Japanese dependency on foreign energy supplies – the Sakhalin 2 project, for example, supplies around 9%  of Japan’s LNG imports.[6]

In terms of “making Brexit work” – for phase 1 and 2 companies, this ship has sailed as far as traditional import export, manufacturing related trade is concerned. They made all the contingency plans and moved what needed to moved a long time ago. There have been no new Japanese manufacturers setting up in Britain, and it is unlikely this will happen until the UK joins the single market again.

For phase 3, making Brexit work will be more to do with ensuring that cooperation and synchronisation with the rest of Europe and the UK’s positive influence inside and outside Europe is as strong as possible in the strategic areas of energy, defence, telecommunications and transportation infrastructure and R&D. This will not have the positive populist impact of phase 2 manufacturing projects, which bring thousands of jobs and supply chains in their wake. In fact the impact electorally could be negative, as we have seen with nuclear power, wind farms and high speed rail – there is antagonism towards the disruption to the countryside they cause and the massive investments they require. This is a problem familiar to Japanese companies in their home country too.

Furthermore, this collaboration is not just about Europe, it needs to bring in the neighbouring continents of Africa and the Middle East. Obviously climate change has to be tackled globally, it cannot be “environmentalism in one country”. Successive Japanese governments have worried about Japan’s energy poverty for decades and this has driven much of the investment, particularly by Japanese trading companies, in overseas energy projects. Trading companies have invested in Africa and the Middle East, often through their regional headquarters in the UK, in renewable energy projects ranging from hydroelectric power generation to solar home systems.

Japanese companies like working with other Japanese companies, so once a beachhead of investment is established, others in the supply chain and support system will follow – as the UK saw with Japanese car companies in the 1970s and the 1980s. That ecosystem is still strong in the UK and many of the components suppliers can also supply the energy and infrastructure sectors.

This new third phase of Japanese investment in and via the UK is not going to be attracted by the UK government giving grants to build or re-equip factories, but by it showing a willingness to invest for results which will only be seen in the long term, and to put political energy into building sustainable government policies and community support.

A pdf of this report can be downloaded here

Our latest 2023 directories of Japanese companies in the UK are available here.

[1] https://biz.toyokeizai.net/en/data/service/detail/id=860&academic=1

[2] https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/international_policy/reference/balance_of_payments/ebpfdii.htm

[3] The History of Mitsubishi Corporation in London: 1915 to Present Day Routledge Advances in Asia-Pacific Business, 2000 https://www.amazon.co.uk/History-Mitsubishi-Corporation-London-Asia-Pacific/dp/0415228727

[4] Zaikai means the Japanese business and finance community, particularly those companies with power and influence and connections to the political sphere, which are seen as representing Japan in the world.

[5] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense-Industries/Japan-to-standardize-arms-with-U.S.-Europe-for-joint-maintenance accessed 22 June 2023

[6] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japans-mitsui-says-no-plans-exit-russias-sakhalin-2-lng-project-2023-06-21/

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The perils of car hire in Europe

Travelling around the UK and Ireland in the past couple of months has been an insight into the unpredictable impacts of the pandemic and the disruption of global supply chains on people’s everyday lives. I went to Ireland in August, to see my family in Cork, spending the first few days in Dublin. There was a very prosperous buzz there, but many young people were complaining about the cost of living, particularly rent and house prices.

Dublin was full of American tourists but in the holiday area on the coast of county Cork, there were very few Americans and most of the tourists seemed to be British.  Usually, American tourists like to hire a car from Dublin airport and then tour around Ireland, often in search of their Irish ancestry. But this year they were quoted such high prices for car hire that they decided to stay in Dublin and travel by train or go on a coach tour to other locations.

The high price of car hire is due to the car hire firms being unable to take delivery of new cars at the rate they would normally expect, so there is a shortage of cars to hire if they retire old stock. Similarly, individual drivers are waiting longer for new cars so have to keep to their old cars longer, which then break down, and parts cannot be obtained easily for repair. They then have to hire a car while they wait for their old car to be fixed – putting further pressure on supply.

When I hired a car last month to drive to Kent, in the southeast of England, it broke down. The repair man was immediately able to spot the problem. The car needed a new battery as the existing one was too old to recharge properly. He also noticed that the coolant had completely run out. The car had clearly not been valeted as there were stains on the seats and dirt on the floor. The repair man told us that car hire firms are having to re-hire their cars so quickly, they do not have time to give them a proper service or clean.

Back in Ireland, my cousin, who is a conveyancer, told me that although there were fewer American tourists in Cork, she was selling more properties to Americans than before the pandemic. Cork has been a popular location for American IT and pharmaceutical companies for some years, but more recently American employees have relocated from the USA to work from Ireland.  Now remote or hybrid working has become more acceptable, they felt happier about their families being raised and educated in Ireland, than having to endure active shooter drills at schools in the USA.

I am about to hire a car in France, where apparently second-hand cars are selling for the same price as new, and some people are resorting to hiring cars from individuals rather than car hire firms. I am bracing myself for what I might be about to experience.

This article by Pernille Rudlin first appeared in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News in November 2022

For more content like this, subscribe to the free Rudlin Consulting Newsletter. 最新の在欧日系企業の状況については無料の月刊Rudlin Consulting ニューズレターにご登録ください。

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Agritech – Japan and UK

I attended a celebration recently at the Japanese Embassy in London, to mark the ending of the British ban on the import of food and drink originating from Fukushima. Plenty of Fukushima sake and peach juice was served but it seemed to me that the large crowd of people who were attended were more keen to get their hands on the Fukushima food that was served. 

Although Japanese food has become so popular in the UK, I doubt, given the distances and size of population, that the UK is going to become a significant market for Fukushima. The Japanese ambassador admitted as much in his speech, saying that the lifting of the ban by the UK had more of a symbolic significance, which he hoped would be noted by the EU and China.

Similarly, it seems unlikely that British food is going to sell in any greater quantity to Japan than it did before the UK Japan Economic Partnership Agreement went into effect in 2021.

Nonetheless, as two island nations, who are not as self-sufficient in food as we would like to be, we have challenges in common, which means we could find solutions together too. It is becoming urgent, as our currencies have weakened, causing imported food, fertilisers and energy to fuel food price inflation.

There are differences, however. The UK is more self-sufficient than Japan, with about 54% of food needs met by domestic production, compared to 38% in Japan. Our main imports are of fresh fruit and vegetables, from the EU – much of it from the Netherlands – grown hydroponically and vertically in huge greenhouses.

The UK could develop its own hydroponic vertical farming further, but the high energy costs of this are a barrier. Energy costs are also a barrier for Japan if it wants to grow its main food imports – wheat, soybeans and oilseeds – in this way. Japan has developed hydroponic vertical technology, for growing food such as lettuce – particularly in Fukushima to avoid having to use contaminated soil – and is now working on low energy solutions.

Another area for collaboration is robotics. I noticed at the Japan embassy event that asparagus – considered to be a speciality of where I live in Norfolk – is also a speciality of Fukushima. Harvesting asparagus has become a problem in post Brexit UK – we can no longer easily hire cheap seasonal workers from the EU to do it. There are labour shortages in Japan too, and also in the Netherlands. As a result, all three nations are developing asparagus harvesting robots. The same technology can then be adjusted to cope with more complex produce.   

A final challenge is to address the issue that hydroponically grown, robot harvested fruit and vegetables are not as tasty as traditionally grown and hand-picked fruit and vegetables. Agrichemicals and breeding of new strains may provide solutions to this. This may explain why, at the embassy event, I kept bumping into representatives of Japanese trading companies who have invested in these sectors in Europe.

This article by Pernille Rudlin first appeared in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News in October 2022

For more content like this, subscribe to the free Rudlin Consulting Newsletter. 最新の在欧日系企業の状況については無料の月刊Rudlin Consulting ニューズレターにご登録ください。

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Top issues for Japanese companies in Europe, Middle East and Africa for 2022/3

The annual survey by JETRO of Japanese multinationals shows that many are struggling to return to pre-COVID levels of profitability. 65% of the 7,000 companies surveyed expect to be profitable by the end of FY 2022 (March 31 2023) but the automotive parts sector is forecasting widening losses.

Expectations for profitability are slightly higher in Europe than the global average and within the region, on a country by country basis, business prospects are overall more positive for Japanese companies in the Netherlands and Germany than for those in France or the UK. On the other hand, due to logistics, procurement and energy costs, 35% of Japanese manufacturers in Eastern Europe are expecting their business prospects to worsen, only just balanced out by the 36% who expect their business prospects to improve. Increasing labour costs and hiring and retention even outweigh the impact of the Ukraine war for Japanese companies in Europe as the key challenge.  This is also seen as a challenge in Western Europe, but with more focus on white collar, managerial workers, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands.

More than 70% of Japanese companies in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and UAE are expecting to achieve profitability in FY2022. However only 37.9% of companies in the region expect profits to improve, 11.8% lower than 2020/21. More than half of the Japanese companies based in Finland, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Czech Republic and Portugal are expecting profits to improve –  compared to 46.7% of Japanese companies in the Netherlands, 44.4% in the UK, 38.1% in France, 36.4% in Germany, 35.3% in UAE and 31.1% in South Africa. Manufacturers in the UK, having not recovered as quickly as in the rest of Europe from the pandemic, are now more optimistic about profitability for 2022/23 than other manufacturers in the region.

45% of Japanese companies are expecting to expand their business in their region over the next 1-2 years, but do not expect to return to full pre-COVID levels because of rising costs. One bright spot is increasing investment in the human resources and hospitality sectors, thanks to the lifting of coronavirus restrictions.

Within EMEA, more than 50% are expecting to expand their business in Denmark, Portugal, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Romania. When asked about expanding “functions”, Germany, UK and the Netherlands were the top 3 for expanding sales functions, Germany, Netherlands and Czech Republic for expanding manufacturing and Germany, France, Spain, UK and Belgium were top for R&D.   Overall, particularly for the UK, the  mood seems to be “keeping things as they are”

Trade

Over 50% of Japanese companies in the UK say that Brexit has had a negative impact on their business, mainly due to (in rank order) increased customs clearance processes, delays and costs of logistics, imposition of tariffs, responding to new UK regulations (eg the CE vs UKCA mark), customers leaving the UK and difficulties in hiring. 40% of Japanese manufacturers in the UK say they are experiencing problems in exporting to the EU.

37.9% of UK based companies say they are using the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement for their exports to the EU, 12.9% up on the previous year. The main reason given for not using it was that their exports were already tariff free, or did not fall within the agreement. The main challenges in using the TCA were setting up their own internal systems, getting the cooperation of EU based suppliers or customers and interacting with customs. Securing human resources was cited by 50% of the Japanese companies in the UK as a negative impact of Brexit (61.5% for manufacturers), compared to only 9.8% of Japanese companies in the EU saying they were concerned about this as a result of Brexit.

49% of Japanese companies in the EU are using the EU Japan Economic Partnership Agreement for importing from Japan to the EU and 34% are using the agreement to export from the EU to Japan. More than half of Japanese companies in Austria, Italy, Czech Republic, France and Spain are using the EPA to import to the EU. The sectors with the highest use of the EPA are chemicals, wholesale, foods, plastic products and transportation equipment.

Localization of supply chains and staff

60% of Japanese manufacturers globally are expecting to review their supply chains in the future months.  Localization of procurement, production and sales is accelerating due to rising raw material and transportation costs and the emergence of supply chain disruption risks. Within Europe, 48.2% of all companies have reviewed their supply chains and 55.5% expect to review them in the coming year.

In Europe, however, there is more interest in localising procurement within the EU than within the country of location. 21.4% of Japanese companies in Western Europe, 32.1% of Japanese companies in Central and Eastern Europe and only 9.5% of Japanese companies in the UK are expecting to increase domestic procurement, whereas 34.3% of Japanese companies in Western Europe and 45.8% of companies in Eastern Europe are expecting to increase their procurement within the EU. No UK companies are expecting to increase their procurement from the EU and no Eastern European Japanese companies are expecting to increase their procurement from the UK either.

Around 20% of European companies are expecting to increase procurement from Japan, but significantly more (around 35%) are expecting to increase procurement from ASEAN countries.

Japanese companies are also planning to reduce the number of expatriate staff sent from Japan, and increase the number of locally hired staff, particularly in Asia.  The pandemic has accelerated the ability to manage the business remotely, from Japan. Within EMEA, 28.9% are expecting to increase their Japanese expats to the Netherlands, compared to a 22.1% increase to UAE, 19.3% increase to Germany, 18.1% to the UK and 13.3% to France and 6.6% to South Africa. 13.3% are expecting to reduce the number of Japanese expats in the Netherlands, 12.4% in Germany, 6.4% to the UK, 16.7% to France.

In terms of hiring more local employees, Japanese companies in Germany came top with 44.3% wishing to do so, then South Africa with 39.5%, Netherlands with 38.9%, France with 37.7%, UK with 36.1%, UAE with 35.9%. 10% of Japanese companies in Germany and the Netherlands were planning to reduce local staff numbers, compared to 11.3% in the UK, 9.8% in France, 9.3% in South Africa, and 4.9% in the UAE.

Whereas automation and reduction of the workforce had been a top priority for manufacturers before 2020, while this is still at number 2, the top priority for the next few years is investment in new equipment and new projects. The third highest priority is revising manufacturing location. The reasons underpinning these priorities are the need to optimise production costs, the high cost of labour and the high cost of raw materials.

CSR and supply chains

A third of Japanese multinationals are doing due diligence on human rights in their supply chains, particularly in Europe, where regulations are being introduced. 46.2% of Japanese companies in the UK are already doing due diligence – compared to 42.9% in France, 30.3% in Germany and 23.2% in the Netherlands. Sectors which are particularly concerned with human rights are mining and minerals, plastic products, non ferrous metals, textiles, construction and foods.

42.4% of Japanese multinationals have started taking steps to reduce their carbon emissions, 9% up on the previous year. 20% of Japanese companies are proceeding with “green procurement” for their suppliers. Portugal, Switzerland, Ireland, Austria, Spain and France score particularly highly in terms of taking steps to reduce carbon emission with over 70% of companies in those countries already having done so, compared to 63.6% in South Africa, 58.3% in the UK, 55.2% in the Netherlands, 51.5% in UAE and 50% in Germany.

Actions taken include reducing energy usage, using  more electric power, using more renewable or new energy sources, with solar being the most popular. Other actions have included developing new environmentally friendly products, green procurement and revising procurement and logistics. The interest in green investments is at a record high, greater than digital investments or eco friendly transportation or tourism.

Sales

The most promising sales destination for Japanese companies in Europe continues to be Poland, for the fourth year running. Turkey has overtaken Germany for the first time in 7 years and the UK is back in the top 10. Other Eastern European countries in the top 10 are Hungary, Czech Republic and Romania – mainly for their economic growth prospects. The other Western European countries in the top 10 are France, Italy and Spain.

Japanese companies in the UK are showing an increasing focus on the UK domestic market for their sales, with an average of 49.4% of sales to the UK market, 2.4% up on 2021/2, compared to a European average of domestic sales of 37.7%. UK companies are selling on average 16.5% of sales to EU countries, compared to 37.6% of sales to other EU countries (excluding their own country) for Japanese companies located in the EU.  Unsurprisingly, Japanese companies in the UK have become more UK oriented since Brexit, as many of the EU sales and coordination functions have shifted from the UK to the EU – and is now potentially stabilising after the sharp decline over 2019/20 to 2021/2

Although the proportion of sales to non-EU Europe (presumably Norway, Switzerland, maybe Turkey) is higher for the UK (16.3%) than for Europe overall (4.4%), there is not much evidence that the UK is being used as a base for sales outside Europe – the proportion of sales to North America (1.7%) or China (1.3%) is actually slightly lower than for the whole of Europe. Sales to Japan have been falling steadily since 2019 (possibly related to Honda Civic sales to Japan). The proportion of sales to “other” countries is higher – 8.5% compared to 6.5%, perhaps showing that some Japanese companies in the UK are indeed Europe, Middle East and Africa headquarters, with sales focused more on the latter regions. ASEAN only accounted for 1% of the 7% of sales to other countries in 2019/20.

Hybrid working and pay rises

European employees of Japanese companies are not returning to the workplace at anything like the rate they are in South West Asia, North West Asia or ASEAN. During 2021, 14.6% of Japanese companies in Europe said that 90% or more of their employees were working at their office or factory and only 29.6% were expecting this to happen in 2022/3 in Europe. In Asia, around 30% of companies said their over 90% of employees were working at the office or factory in 2021 and this is expected to be near to 70% in 2023. This may reflect that there are proportionately more manufacturing companies in Asia than in Europe.

In terms of reviewing management and personnel policies and structure, by far the most popular choice for review was human resource development and training – chosen by 61.6% of Japanese multinationals. Second was reviewing working from home policies, at 35.3%, closely followed by reviewing staff remuneration at 32.3%. The next three topics were all chosen by around 27% of Japanese companies – digitization of workflows, reviewing the expat staff structure and localising management.

Pay rises are highest in emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Mexico, Vietnam and South Africa and in Europe – Hungary, Poland, Romania and Czech Republic – at around 6 to 9% over the past two quarters, whereas despite the high inflation rates, pay is only expected to rise by 2.7% to 4.6% in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, France and UAE.

Update – this article has been added to since the publication of a European focused version of the survey by JETRO in December 2022. 

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77% of Japanese companies in Europe say the Ukraine war has had a negative impact on their business

77% of Japanese companies in Europe have had their business negatively impacted by the war in Ukraine, according to a survey conducted by JETRO in September 2022. The manufacturing industry was particularly hard hit, at 83.7% and Japanese companies in Belgium (92.5%), France (87.5%) and Spain (86.2%) had the highest proportion of all countries reporting a negative impact. This may be linked to the industries most expressing concern about negative impacts – food, automobiles/motorcycles and electrical and electronic equipment. France is host to a number of Japanese food related companies and Belgium is the European headquarters of Toyota and other related automotive companies.

The main negative impacts were an increase in energy price, an increase in raw material and resource price and confusion and congestion of logistics.

The main responses to negative impacts of the invasion of Ukraine were “passing on price rises to customers” (50.5%) and diversifying procurement sources (27.5%). Manufacturers were also increasing inventory more than they were trying to find new customers.

More general concerns were rising and persistently high costs, including energy, and the extension of the frontiers of the war, the use of nuclear weapons and attacks on nuclear power plants, as well as any increase or prolongation of uncertainty about the future – when the war would end, when it would be possible to resume business with Russia.

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UK becoming like Japan in seeing overseas as growth driver

The spring 2022 Santander Bank Trade Barometer survey showed that 33% of UK businesses who were only domestic in focus up until now have ambitions to internationalise in the next three years – a greater proportion than in any previous survey. It was also the first time that overseas markets were seen as the most important driver of business recovery from the pandemic.

With growth prospects looking dim in the UK and trade with the EU having become more difficult thanks to Brexit, British companies are seeing overseas markets as their main source of growth, just as Japanese businesses did when the economic bubble burst.  

This conclusion is illustrated in the Santander report with a photograph of a geisha in a taxi, looking at a mobile phone, but according to the survey, the main non-EU overseas markets that British companies are interested in are the US and Australia, EU countries such as Germany and France, and then India and China – ahead of Japan. 

The survey was of around 1000 UK businesses with a minimum £1m turnover. Those companies who already had business overseas said they are selling more into non-EU markets than before Brexit.  They saw the main operational challenges in most markets as shipping costs and bureaucracy. It was only for Japan that language and culture and having to adapt products and services accordingly were seen as the primary challenges. Perhaps deregulation in Japan and smoothing of inward investment has had an impact – bureaucracy in Japan was far less of a concern than for China, USA, India, Germany, UAE, Spain, Italy and France.  

Of those British business who are currently domestic only, 42% are expecting to use online marketplaces and 40% are expecting use their own ecommerce site to sell their products. They will no doubt find that language and culture will indeed be an issue, even virtually, if they want to do business with Japanese customers. Their website will not only have to be translated, but their offering needs to be adapted to Japanese customer preferences. My belief is that physical presence in Japan is necessary for success, but only 20% are considering physical presence in the overseas markets.

Those businesses who are UK domestic but are now looking overseas also say their primary source of advice on overseas business is the internet. Whereas those who already have experience of overseas business say their main source of advice is a business partner in the target market.

I suspect many of these internet searches for advice will end up on our Japan Intercultural Consulting website, but it is notable that the only serious consulting enquiries we get are from companies who already have a physical presence or are about to set up an office in Japan. They have all been service sector companies – in recruiting, IT, advertising and financial services.

For them, the key challenge in Japan is recruiting, managing and retaining good quality employees – which may be why partnering with a Japanese company is still a preferred route.

This article by Pernille Rudlin first appeared in the Teikoku Databank News on 10th August 2022

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A very timely introduction of a new trade compliance diploma from the International Trade Institute

We thought the new trade compliance diploma from the recently-established International Trade Institute would be of interest to Japanese companies operating in Europe, struggling with additional complications post-Brexit. Now that various sanctions are being introduced against Russia, it seems even more timely.

It is the first University-recognised diploma that is international in scope – recognised as a qualification not only in the UK but also Ireland and at the EU level. The facilitators are trade experts themselves, with many years of consulting on trade compliance around the world.  The course is a programme of seven modules of a high level but practical curriculum, spread over three months at times convenient to participants, with online modules and live sessions.

The Institute has had early success in attracting participants with job roles such as logistics specialist, trade compliance manager, warehouse supervisor and shipping manager from global brand US and other multinational companies to the Diploma Programme.
The next course is starting on June 9th, and a further intake is scheduled for September. Further information is available from www.internationaltradeinstitute.com.

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Survey of Japanese companies in Europe

Normally by this stage of the year, JETRO (the Japan External Trade Organization) would have issued the English translation of the top level findings of their annual surveys of Japanese companies in Europe (and internationally), but this does not seem to have happened this year. What is happening in Ukraine and the impact on Europe may well make any conclusions meaningless, but here, for what they’re worth, are the points which stood out for us.

Overall trends

More Japanese companies were forecasting profitability for 2021/2 than the previous year (65.7% vs 48.5%) but this is not yet back up to the pre-pandemic levels of profitability. The only countries where more than half of the Japanese companies there expected to see improved profitability – even compared to pre-pandemic levels – were Slovakia, Italy, Portugal and Sweden. Less than half of the Japanese companies in the UK, Czech Republic, Belgium, Spain, Denmark or Romania expected to see improved profitability in 2021 compared to 2019 or 2020.

This can be explained by the fact that in terms of sectors, ceramics and minerals, rubber, foods, machinery and wholesale were expecting a recovery, but banking, automotive, electronics and trading companies were all expecting conditions to worsen – sectors which are particularly active in the UK, Czech Republic and Belgium.

Many companies said that they were reviewing their supply chains and purchasing. Procurement costs and lead times have become new issues for manufacturers. UK based Japanese manufacturers seemed more pessimistic than in other countries in their forecasts, with nearly a quarter expecting conditions to worsen.  Most Japanese companies were looking to procure more from central and Eastern Europe and between 14 to 28% were looking to reduce their procurement from the UK, dependin g on location and sector.

EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement

Nearly 50% of the respondents to the survey said they were using the EU Japan EPA for their imports into the EU – this was 80% for Japanese companies in Hungary, 65% Czech Republic, 64.3% Belgium, 53.3% Poland, 53.8% Netherlands, 48.4% Germany. This would probably reflects imports of automotive components into the EU from Japan, for at least the first 4.

EU UK TCA

25% of companies who are involved in UK-EU trade were using the TCA for exports from the UK to the EU and 10.4% were using it for exports from the EU to the UK. Around 50% of Japanese companies in the UK were using the UK Japan EPA to import from Japan to the UK and 39.1% were using it to export from the UK to Japan. 39.1% of Japanese companies in the UK were procuring from Japan, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.

More than 40% of Japanese companies in the region said that they did not know if the TCA had an impact on them or not and were concerned about the burdens of coordinating with suppliers and partners and the cost of making changes and self regulating.

Top issues

As in pre-pandemic years, employee recruitment and retention and high labour costs continue to be top concerns, with logistics and procurement costs also climbing up the list of priorities.

Brexit

Brexit has continued to be the top concern of Japanese companies in the UK, but less concerning than in 2020. Nonetheless, nearly 50% of Japanese companies in the UK see Brexit as having had a negative impact, two thirds if looking at manufacturers alone. Nearly half of Japanese manufacturers in the UK were experiencing issues with exporting to the EU from the UK and around 35% were experiencing problems with importing from the EU to the UK.

The second most concerning issue for Japanese companies in the UK is the pandemic, with employee recruitment and retention moving up from 5th to 3rd place, customs clearance still in 4th place (but a growing concern) and labour costs and GDPR at about the same level as the previous year.

Over half of Japanese companies in the UK were concerned about any deviation by the UK from GDPR, and 44% about having to deal with a UK CA mark in addition to the CE mark. 42% were worried about the movement of people between the UK and the EU – more so in the services sector than manufacturing. A third or so were also concerned about the REACH regulations and regulations on the movement of capital.

Unsurprisingly, there was an increased proportion of domestic UK sales by Japanese companies in the UK and a corresponding fall in sales to the EU.

Sales prospects

Poland was cited as the most promising sales destination for the third year running, with Germany second for the third year running too. Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey are next most popular, then France and then Russia, with Slovakia and Spain also in the top 10. Overall, even including the UK, most Japanese companies were expecting to expand in the region in 2021/22. How the events of 2022 will affect this remains to be seen.

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Japanese companies in the UK are shrinking – is Brexit to blame?

The number of Japanese companies and their employees in the UK is starting to decline. Given that this is against the trend elsewhere in Europe, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that this is a reaction to Brexit.

Brexit has put up barriers to the UK trading within the Single Market, damaging sectors it used to have a comparative advantage in such as automotive manufacturing and financial services. The UK is now left with its global strength in services such as professional services, IT, design, marketing and education. It remains to be seen how much of this strength was also reliant on being part of the Single Market, in terms of being able to sell those services to the EU and benefit from the freedom of movement of the people providing or benefiting from those services. So far, Japanese companies seem to be happy to continue to access these services by basing their regional head offices in the UK, regardless of Brexit, or through acquiring British companies in the services sector.

The decline is from a high base. The UK has the highest stock of Japanese foreign direct investment, the highest number of employees of Japanese companies, and the most resident Japanese nationals in Europe.

The decline in numbers of Japanese companies in the UK is mainly due to a reduction in Japanese companies in the manufacturing and financial sectors. There has also been a drop in the number employed in automotive manufacturing. On top of this, the main driver of the past few years behind the rising employee and company numbers – big-ticket M&As followed by expansion in employee numbers – has been less of a force more recently.

To understand more about the trends in Japanese companies in the UK in terms of investment and employee numbers, how this compares with Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy and what this might mean for the UK in future years, please download our report below:

Japanese companies in the UK

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Gravity still matters for Japanese trade and business expansion

TThe Japan External Trade Organisation has published its annual survey of the international operations of Japanese companies. An overview in English is available here, but not the full version that is available in Japanese only.

The English language overview only mentions Europe once, in the context of China, the US and Western Europe comprising 60% of the export destinations that Japanese companies are focusing on.  The more detailed Japanese version breaks Western Europe into the UK and Western Europe excluding UK. As a consequence, the UK didn’t make the top 10 of future export destinations.  56.7% selected China (up from 49.1% in 2012), then the USA (50.3% – a large increase on 34.1% in 2012), Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand. Western Europe excluding the UK was next, at #6, selected by 39.8%, up from 23.2% in 2012.  Clearly the gravity model of trade is not dead yet, but a less hostile presidency or an Economic Partnership Agreement helps.

The report also highlights the interest of Japanese companies, particularly SMEs, in using e-commerce to trade abroad. However, digital trade does not seem to be overcoming the gravity model either. Again, China is by far the most popular sales destination for e-commerce, then the USA, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. France just pips the UK at 8th, cited by 16.3%, up from 10.4% in 2016. The UK was cited by 14.9% of companies, not much changed from 14.2% in 2012.  In terms of where Japanese companies are focusing their future e-commerce efforts, China was selected by 40% (for food, drink, cosmetics, clothing, machinery, and haircare products), then the US for food – particularly tea and rice – cosmetics, clothing and machinery. Germany was selected by 5.2%, France by 4.9% and the UK by 3.4%.

In terms of where Japanese companies are planning to expand their business (not just via exports), a leap in the USA’s popularity stands out again – up 8% from 31.9% in 2019. Western Europe (including the UK) was 6th most popular, after China, Vietnam, the USA, Thailand and Taiwan, selected by 30.4%, up 5% on a year ago.  Japanese companies who are looking to expand in Western Europe are mainly manufacturers of ICT and electronic devices, clothing and apparel and “other manufacturing”.  Expanding in Western Europe was the fourth highest choice as a destination for expanding the R&D function for new product development, the fifth highest choice for expanding R&D for localisation, high value added manufacturing, regional coordination functions and logistics. The UK did best as the destination for R&D for new product development, coming in at 8th, after China, Vietnam, USA, Taiwan, Western Europe, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore. It was the tenth ranked choice for R&D for localisation and for regional coordination, 11th for logistics, 12th for high value added manufacturing, 13th for sales and not in the top 15 for applied engineering.

The UK has become the world’s fifth largest economy again, having dropped to 6th, after India  was hit by a recession. You might, therefore, have expected the UK to rank higher if market size were all that counted. That it has not is partly due to gravity, but also the maturity of the UK-Japan business relationship and Japanese companies’ search for growth, not to mention the uncertain impact of Brexit in the longer run.

 

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