The fourth industrial revolution should not be mercantilized

UK is the birthplace of innovation and will not sink, despite Brexit, says Toru Sugawara, the deputy editor of the Nikkei Business magazine – Japan’s equivalent of The Economist (only with more business, less economy).

He acknowledges that Brexit is casting a shadow on the world economy, and that the problems will not end just with an extension, as the negotiations will drag on, unless the result of the referendum is reversed.

He points to how employment remains buoyant in the UK, despite GDP growth being the lowest in 6 years, and says that this could be because immigration from the EU is decreasing – which was one of the reasons people voted to leave. He does not mention that net immigration has not dropped, as more people are coming from non-EU countries. So unless you believe that EU immigrants only have jobs which UK natives could do, and non-EU immigrants only do jobs that UK natives couldn’t do…

He believes the UK’s resilience derives from an inner strength which helped it to lead the industrial revolution as the “birthplace of innovation.” Because the UK has worldclass universities “UK research levels are extremely high. Even if they leave the EU, there are researchers who want to learn from the UK” – according to an engineer from a major Japanese electronics company.

The UK is similar to Japan, Sugawara notes, in that neither was able to match Silicon Valley in terms of being able to turn innovations into world changing businesses. He thinks the UK is changing, however, dating from when the British Business Bank launched in 2014, bringing together various funds for startups and small businesses and also the introduction of the regulatory sandbox, to allow new kinds of financial services to test their products.

Venture capital funding in the UK in 2018 was $7.9bn, double that of Germany or France (although what he doesn’t say is that this was down from a high of $8.1bn the previous year, and that Germany and France seem to be catching up) . Dr Yuri Okina of the Japan Research Institute points out that the UK’s strength is that as well as having the world’s financial centre, there is a rich source of accountants, lawyers, consultants and other specialists who support an ecosystem for new business.

If this network could be boosted further, then the UK could lead the 4th wave of the industrial revolution, asserts Sugawara. He warns that Japan, who puts its funds into propping up zombie companies, with regulatory systems that impede new industries from growing, will get left behind. “That’s the bigger worry” he concludes.

So he seems to be turning an encouraging pat on the back for the UK into a kick up the backside for Japan. What he says is not going to be news to many Japanese companies, who have reacted to the difficulties they face in Japan by investing in the UK (and elsewhere in Europe). Sugawara mentions SoftBank‘s acquisition of the UK’s ARM, but there have been plenty of other less spectacular investments. Much of it has to do with CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric) in the automotive industry – Sony Innovation has invested in What3Words (a geocoding system) – also invested in by Daimler. Itochu has invested in Hiyacar and I realise now that its acquisition of UK car repair chain KwikFit probably also fits into this automotive services play. Similarly Sumitomo Corporation has invested in the Nordic parking company Q-Park and Sweden’s car sharing service Aimo. Japan’s Park24 acquiring National Car Parks in the UK is probably also looking to a CASE future. Panasonic acquired Spanish automotive systems and parts company Ficosa in 2017.

So really, it’s not about any one country leading the fourth industrial revolution – it will be collaborative and global by its very nature. Both Japan and the UK need to keep their doors as wide open as possible to let everyone get on the ride.

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Acquire or be acquired – predictions on the future of Japanese mergers and acquisitions

Japanese companies used to be seen as very reluctant to acquire and merge with other companies, but the record breaking £46bn acquisition, finalised in January 2019, of Irish pharmaceuticals company Shire by Japan’s Takeda may not even be the peak of what has been at least 10 years’ of an overseas spending spree by Japanese companies. Faced with a declining, ageing domestic market, Nikkei Business magazine expects Japanese companies to continue their spending spree in 2019, even if there is not a big ticket purchase like Takeda/Shire.

Autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things and other new technologies are likely to be the focus of future M&A. For example Japan’s tyre maker Bridgestone has acquired the telematics business of Dutch company TomTom. “Tyre companies are also entering the era of CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Sharing Electric)” says Bridgestone’s CEO Masaaki Tsuya. Sensors can be placed in tyres to understand driving conditions, for example.

In the IT sector, NEC has acquired the UK company Northgate Public Services in January 2019 and in December of the previous year acquired Denmark’s KMD Holding and is looking to acquire a stake in India’s Mindtree.

Food and drink companies are also active – Mizkan, Ajinomoto and Asahi Beer have all made acquisitions recently in Europe.

In the financial sector, Nikkei Business speculates that a Japanese company like SMFG or Orix might be interested in acquiring GE’s aircraft leasing business GECAS, headquartered in Ireland – although GE has since denied GECAS is for sale. MUFG might be interested in the US Bank of the West.

Most of the acquisitions of Japanese companies have been by Chinese companies, but Nikkei Business also wonders whether some of the big Western automotive suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, ZF, or Magna might not be interested in acquiring Japanese automotive suppliers.

Declutter and dispose

M&A is also an opportunity for Japan’s keiretsus (conglomerates and company groupings) to do a bit of tidying up. The trendsetter in this has been Hitachi, who have been pursuing a rigorous policy of “selection and focus” in rearranging their business portfolio. Over the past 10 years or so they have sold off Hitachi Global Storage Technologies to Western Digital, Hitachi Logistics to SG Holdings, sold a 27% share in Hitachi Capital to MUFG, sold Hitachi Power Tools and Hitachi Kokusai Electric to KKR and Clarion to Faurecia.

Japanese investors and banks are keeping a watch on Hitachi High Technologies, Hitachi Chemical, Hitachi Automotive Systems, Hitachi Construction Machinery and Hitachi Metals as the next possible candidates. Hitachi Chemical and Hitachi Metals were supposed to be two of the “Three Branches” of Hitachi along with Hitachi Cable, so the idea that they could be sold off would be heresy to some Hitachi old timers. As the Nikkei Business magazine says, Hitachi is trying to compete as a global company, so any business that has no synergy with its “social innovation” vision is likely to be dropped.

Panasonic already sold off its security camera business and foreign funds are eyeing up Panasonic Avionics – an inflight entertainment company – as a likely next candidate. “It has nothing to do with Panasonic’s main business”, one investor commented.

Takeda seems to be preparing to dispose of its consumer healthcare business to help fund its acquisition of Shire, as it has spun off its vitamin drinks and other products into a separate company.

Fujitsu has also been disposing of its hardware businesses – mobile phones, car electronics and PCs and Sony‘s mobile phone business is still struggling, and rumours that it could be sold continue.

Spark surprise

Nikkei Business concludes with some surprise predictions from the experts it spoke to:

Astellas and Daiichi Sankyo merging
Pioneer and JVCKenwood merging
SoftBank acquiring NEC
Fast Retailing acquiring Gap
Google acquiring Recruit
Amazon acquiring 7&i (7-11 convenience store chain)

Unsettling though it may be for the employees concerned, if clarity in the focus and business of Japan’s iconic companies results from these M&As, ultimately it should make for a more confident Japan Inc.

Size matters when choosing a Japanese company

Whether you’re looking to work for or supply to a Japanese company, size matters. The most obvious reason being, as bank robber Willie Sutton apparently never said, “that’s where the money is”. That’s why we started our Top 30 Japanese Employers rankings – we’ve found them useful in understanding our customer base and the likely concerns of participants in our seminars.

We use the number of employees as a proxy for size rather than turnover or profit, and although there is a degree of correlation between employee numbers globally and in Europe and overall profit, there are some exceptions.

Toyo Keizai have recently listed up the companies* who made the biggest cumulative profit in the past 10 years and it’s absolutely no surprise that Toyota, one of the biggest companies in Japan and #9 amongst Japanese companies in Europe, made a whopping Y11 trillion ($99bn) cumulative profit from 2007 to 2017, far outstripping NTT and NTT Docomo at #2 and #3 who made less than half that amount. NTT and NTT Docomo are not in our Top 30 Japanese companies in Europe, although another group company, NTT Data, is.

However NTT and NTT Docomo never made a loss, whereas Toyota did go into the red – with a loss of $.8.6bn in 2008/9. Honda, who has had a tough time in Europe (and is #23 in our rankings), has also never made a loss, and accumulated a $36bn profit over the decade. Nissan, who made a loss but was famously turned round by Carlos Ghosn, is 10th largest in Europe in our rankings and has the 6th largest cumulative profit.

I was surprised to see my old employer Mitsubishi Corporation at #5, as they too had some rough patches particularly with losses in the commodity side, but clearly overall the Japanese trading companies have been very profitable, despite their death being heralded every decade – Mitsui is at #9, Itochu at #11, Sumitomo Corp at #14 and Marubeni at #21.

Unsurprisingly, almost none of the Japanese electronics companies feature in the top 30, apart from Canon at #10 and Mitsubishi Electric at #25. Other industries in the top 50 most profitable are automotive (Denso, Bridgestone) and pharmaceutical (Takeda, Astellas) related, and also heavily domestic businesses such as telecommunications (KDDI, SoftBank as well as NTT mentioned above), rail and retail (7&I, Fast Retailing).

Two of the largest Japanese companies in Europe – Fujitsu and Hitachi – are at #69 and #70 – Hitachi’s cumulative profit was heavily dented by the historic loss of $8bn in 2008/9. The largest company in the Europe and Africa region – Sumitomo Electric Industries (due to its labour intensive automotive manufacturing operations) is at #38, with a $6bn cumulative profit.

*Excludes banks, insurance and other financial services companies

The story of Japanese companies in the UK continues to be the story of the UK economy overall in 2016

The number of people employed in the UK by the biggest Japanese companies in the UK rose by around 1% to 76,103 in 2016 – representing over half of the 140,000 or so the Japanese Embassy to the UK estimates are employed overall in the UK by Japanese companies.

Just as 80% of the UK economy is services, so too with Japanese companies in the UK. Although Nissan, Toyota and Honda attract most of the headlines thanks to Brexit – understandably as they represent around 15,000 of the 76,000 jobs – the vast majority of the rest are in the services sector.

Even Sony has only one small factory left in the UK, making high end audio visual equipment and employing less than 100 people. The rest of 3000 or so jobs are in Sony Interactive Entertainment, music and film & TV or in marketing.

Fujitsu is still the biggest Japanese employer in the UK but the gap with Nissan at #2 is narrowing, as Fujitsu have reduced their headcount by over 15% in the past year or so. Although Fujitsu is still seen as an IT & telecomms manufacturer in Japan, in the UK it is largely an IT services company.

Trading company Itochu may be a surprise at #3, but this is largely due to its ownership of tyre fitting chain KwikFit.

The Hitachi group of companies (#7) has grown by 17% over the year – thanks in part to expansion at Hitachi Rail and Horizon Nuclear Power – but the bulk of its employees continue to be at consumer loans company Hitachi Capital.

Dentsu Aegis Network, part of the Dentsu advertising agency, has continued to acquire across the UK and Europe, resulting in a 21% increase in headcount. Other notable increases thanks to acquisitions include Mitsui Sumitomo & Aioi Nissay Dowa acquiring Lloyds underwriters Amlin and of course Softbank, a new entrant to the top 30, with its acquisition of ARM.

The story of Japanese companies in the UK continues to be the story of the UK economy overall – a trend which will no doubt continue in 2017, with Japanese banks already strengthening and relocating to their other European Union based operations, or threatening to do so.

Customised reports, profiles and other research on the Top 30 largest Japanese companies in Europe, Middle East and Africa are available – please contact pernillerudlinrudlinconsultingcom for further details.

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Putting the Softbank/ARM deal in context – an exception in so many ways, is also not

To understand the sheer scale of the proposed £24bn Softbank acquisition of UK based chip designer ARM – we estimate it would increase investment by Japanese companies in the UK by over a half of the current cumulative total. Britain benefits more from Japanese investment than any other country in the world apart from the US and this deal would certainly maintain that claim, despite Brexit. By the end of 2014, the total value of Japanese investment in the UK was £38bn – to which should be added Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance’s acquisition of Amlin for £3.5bn in 2015.

There have been plenty of other acquisitions these past 15 years of UK iconic companies by Japanese companies, such as Nippon Sheet Glass acquiring Pilkington for £2.2bn in 2006 (interesting to note that ARM’s chairman is Stuart Chambers, who was CEO of Pilkington when NSG acquired it). The number of acquisitions probably accounts for the discrepancy between the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs estimate of the number of Japanese companies in the UK of 879 – rather lower than that of the Teikoku Databank figure of 1380 noted previously. Of these, 470 are classified as incorporated (as opposed to branch offices) and many, as we pointed out previously, cover the whole European region. As well as concerns about losing “financial passporting” and the impact of tariffs on supply chains, a further 158 are R&D or design centres, which may well benefit from EU funds – which may mean relocating should those funds no longer be available post-Brexit.

JETRO, the Japan External Trade Relations Organisation surveyed 54 Japanese companies in the UK just before the EU referendum vote. 64.8% saw Brexit as having a negative impact on their business, with “Don’t know” 25.9% and “no impact” 9.3%. Several responded that they were looking at relocating to Germany, the Netherlands or Ireland. As JETRO points out, all three countries have strong economic links to the UK, so relocation there will not avoid being influenced by what happens to the UK and how Brexit impacts the EU.

The Japanese Chamber of Commerce & Industry in the UK has compiled the UK-Japan trade statistics for the past 15 years and it is noticeable that there is no clear trend in imports of goods from Japan – fluctuating between a high of £9bn in 2001 and a low of £6.7bn in 2009, and currently at £6.9bn for 2015. There has been an upward trend in UK export of goods to Japan, from around £3.5bn 15 years’ ago to over £4.5bn in recent years. A £3bn or so trade surplus in Japan’s favour nonetheless persists. But it is only literally half the story, The UK’s exports to Japan are actually around £9.9bn as of 2012 according to the UKTI. The other half are exports of services, primarily financial, but also legal, advertising, media, consulting etc.

The Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement is supposed to be finalised by the end of the year, and apparently may be worth £5bn a year to the UK. It will mean the elimination of the vast majority of trade tariffs, boosting imports and exports in agriculture, car manufacturing and clothing. There are still issues to be resolved on auto and agricultural tariffs as well as government procurement. And of course, how it will apply to the UK once it leaves the EU is a big unknown.

Looking at the development of Japanese companies in the UK over the past 40 years, apart from the big automotive manufacturers, it is clear that, as I wrote in my history of Mitsubishi Corporation, the UK has become a coordination and financing/marketing hub for Japanese companies in the region. Most of the famous Japanese names, such as Sony, no longer have mass production in the UK. Sony has a manufacturing centre in Wales, but it develops and produces low volume professional audio visual equipment. Even in the automotive sector, if you look closely at parts manufacturers such as Sumitomo Electric Wiring, which acquired Lucas SEI in 1999, or Yazaki, their operations in the UK are mostly development, design and engineering, or regional coordination. Their UK factories were shut down and production moved east or to North Africa years ago.

So Softbank’s acquisition of ARM, an exception in so many ways, is also not. It is buying into the UK’s design and technology expertise, as well as multinational marketing and management skills. Forty plus years of trade in the EU and the development of the Single Market has done exactly what the textbooks would predict, which is to make it clear where the UK’s strengths are – design, engineering, finance, marketing, legal and other services and some high end manufacturing. The revival of mass car production in the UK is because of our membership of the Single Market. The UK on its own is not enough to sustain a car industry (see the paragraph in my blog post here regarding the 100 million market theory).

The Japan-EU FTA is meant to cover services as well as products but the EU single market in services has not progressed for a while and it looks like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which would cover EU-USA services, is faltering. It does seem like the UK is going to end up spending enormous amounts of its resources and energy on unpicking 40 years of trade arrangements which have already had a profound impact on its economy, at a time when those resources would have been better devoted to developing agreements which would help the UK play to its strengths.

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Will there be a return on sending Japanese interns abroad?

Sending Japanese students abroad as interns has become very popular in the past year or so, according to Nikkei Business. The Uniqlo brand owner Fast Retailing sends around 73 students a year to Singapore, London and Melbourne. Sompo Japan Nipponkoa despatched 10 interns to Singapore earlier this year and Softbank has sent 5 interns to work for its Sprint subsidiary in Kansas.

It is seen as one solution to the shortage of graduates who have overseas experience or the interest in working abroad. Most “global minded” graduates head for prestigious and well paid trading company jobs. Returns on the hefty investment in such internships are not guaranteed however. Whether enough interns actually then join the companies who sponsored them, or whether a short internship is any substitute for prolonged periods of study abroad is not yet clear. My view is that Japanese companies should invest similarly in internships for non-Japanese recruits or at least offer short secondments to Japan as part of their graduate induction programmes, if they are really serious about making their Japan HQs more globally minded.

5 conditions for successful Japanese cross border M&A

SoftBank’s acquisition of Finnish mobile games maker Supercell in 2013 for $1.5bn did not grab the headlines to the extent its $21.6bn acquisition of Sprint did, but Nikkei Business in its December series on cross border M&A points to it as evidence of the final characteristic necessary for successful acquisitions – “animal spirits” – a hunger for growth with the acquisition showing the direction in which Masayoshi Son wants to take the company.

The Nikkei Business magazine goes on to conclude the series with “Five Conditions for Success” in cross border M&As:

1. Do not go near M&As without a concrete and detailed management strategy for what will happen after the merger

2. Set up a specialist team within the company, which investigates target companies and draws up shortlists

3. Be very strict on the contents of the agreement. It will be vital when unforeseen problems occur after the acquisition.

4. For cross border acquisitions, the key is to motivate the management team in the acquired company. However a proper agreement must be put in place regarding switching to other companies and performance based compensation.

5. Make preparations in advance for all kinds of scenarios. Although it’s hard to predict events like the Lehman shock, preparations will help with coping with change.

I would add a few to that. For example, whilst it might be best to take some time before making radical changes to the acquired company, symbolic changes such as taking the parent company name relatively early on help focus the two companies on “what is different now” and “what we have in common” and stop both companies from sliding back into their pre merger habits, with the acquired company feeling neglected and directionless.

Try to bring the acquired company executives into the HQ fold as soon as possible. Even though it’s best to delegate to them the authority they are used to, it’s also important for them to understand how to socialise their proposals through nemawashi with their peers in the headquarters. Actually moving to Japan seems to have been a step too far for many non-Japanese executives, but frequent business trips should be encouraged and supported. Perhaps even a mentor could be appointed.

Finally, as the Nikkei Business itself points out, it’s actually the Japan HQ that needs to change if their acquisitons are to succeed.

If you are being acquired by a Japanese company, you may be interested in Japan Intercultural Consulting’s (represented by Rudlin Consulting in EMEA) post merger integration services.

Successes and failures of Japanese cross border M&A (Pilkington & Nippon Sheet Glass)

Softbank’s $21bn acquisition of Sprint, the merger of Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials and most recently LIXIL’s 3bn euro acquisition of German bathroom fitting manufacturer Grohe have provoked a two part series in the Nikkei Business magazine on the successes and failures of Japanese cross border M&A, starting with the article of 2nd December, which I read just as I was travelling to Japan to help with a post merger integration project.

Since 2000, domestic M&As have decreased, but cross border M&As have soared for Japanese companies, with a pause after the Lehman Shock in 2009-2011. Of the 15 M&As noted by the Nikkei from March 2011 to October 2013, 14 were cross border, and the majority were deals of over $1bn.

The Nikkei comments that although the reason for these acquisitions is clear (the hunt for growth outside the saturated Japanese domestic market), the post merger story has not been that rosy for many of the acquiring companies in the past decade. The Nikkei focuses on three cases – Nippon Sheet Glass’s acquisition of Pilkington in 2006, Daiichi Sankyo’s acquisition of Ranbaxy in 2008 and Ricoh’s acquisition of US company Ikon Office Solutions in 2008, to see what lessons can be learnt.

Nippon Sheet Glass/Pilkington

NSG were worried that they might be dumped by Toyota, their key customer, if they could not match Toyota’s overseas expansion. Before the acquisition of Pilkington, 80% of NSG’s sales were in Japan. Pilkington’s turnover was double that of NSG, so by acquiring it, NSG was finally able to be on equal terms with Asahi (who had previously acquired Saint Gobain). After the acquisition, the March 2008 results showed that NSG Group sales were 80% overseas, with profits at a record high. Stuart Chambers and other Pilkington executives took over the key management positions in the group and it seemed as if the company had become global overnight.

However the good times did not last, as the Lehman Shock brought about the world economic crisis, followed by the euro debt crisis, impacting the two main businesses of automotive glass and construction glass. The NSG management did not take any effective action “and then it hit us” says a Japanese executive at the time “that we knew nothing about Pilkington”. They thought it would be a growth engine, so did not do anything beyond cut employees and shut down operations.

Too focused on growth and globalization

This is where Japanese M&As often come unstuck says the Nikkei – they are so focused on the growth and globalization, they do not fully develop strategies and pathways for ensuring the M&A actually bears fruit. “We had to focus on the immediate crisis, rather than the growth of the new company” says Kazumitsu Fujii, an executive officer.

NSG did know Pilkington quite well – having held equity in the company since 2000, and collaborated on various projects together. Howerver they had not undertaken any simulation of the financial impacts of any worsening market conditions post merger. As one executive at the time says “we did not even have any thought that the economic situation would get so bad so quickly”.

Stuart Chambers resigned in September 2009, citing family pressures from being in Japan all the time – and it was felt that his heart was not really in the job.

NSG had a 4-3-3 10 year vision. The first four years were to be about integrating the two companies’ systems and cutting down the debts. The next three years were to expand sales in automotive and construction glass and the second 3 years were to be about investing in new businesses.

However the company has not managed to move on from the first phase yet. It seems that the lack of understanding and knowledge between the two companies has meant that the negative financial situation has dragged on. “We thought that once we had made the leap into being a global company, all kinds of paths would open up to us, but it was not the case” says a former employee.

The new President, Keiji Yoshikawa says “we are having to fix areas we did not see at the time of the acquisition”. Pilkington had centralised, standardized global HR management and sales systems which looked efficient at first glance, but meant that there were regional differences which were ignored.

For example, construction glass has to take account of the different climates and lifestyles, but apparently such products were not given much priority. So NSG have started to allocate budgets to projects such as fire resistant glass in Germany.

After 7 years, NSG have finally started to understand Pilkington, concludes Nikkei Business.

Standardization and taking the initiative

My personal thoughts on this, having conducted various cross cultural communications seminars for Pilkington and Nippon Sheet Glass at the time, was that the two companies knew each other pretty well. The gap was more to do with differing views and levels of experience in managing globally.

Pilkington, like many Anglo Saxon multinationals, would indeed emphasise a standard unified approach to management and product development around the world, in order to ensure maximum profitability. The Japanese view that products should be customised to suit different markets is not cost effective, in this world view.

The other issue, as is so often the case when Japanese companies acquire Western ones, is that both parties sit back and wait for the other to take the initiative – and this was amplified by the Lehman Shock – where quick and decisive action was needed. Pilkington may well have expected NSG to take the lead, whereas NSG was expecting Pilkington to have the global experience to provide the guidance for what to do in such extreme circumstances.

Last updated by Pernille Rudlin at 2022-12-10.

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