Brexit

Pernille Rudlin on the Japan By River Cruise podcast

Pernille Rudlin was the guest on the Japan By River Cruise podcast, hosted by gaijin tarento (foreign celebrities) Bobby Judo (living in Fukuoka) and Ollie Horn (a stand up comedian now based in Bristol, UK).

Pernille talks about her early experiences living in Japan as a child, the current state of UK Japan trade and how where she currently lives, Norwich, is connected to the RingerHut chain of Nagasaki Chinese noodle restaurants via Norwich native and Victorian merchant Frederick Ringer.

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Japanese companies’ preparations for Brexit pay off

I was relieved to see that the prediction I made in September 2019 that Japanese companies would be well prepared for a hard Brexit has proved to be correct. I would imagine Japanese logistics companies had a large part to play in this.

Japanese car manufacturers have had to halt production in the UK, but this has been more to do with the impact of coronavirus and a shortage of semiconductors than any Brexit related problems.

According to a JETRO survey at the end of last year, the main countermeasure adopted by Japanese manufacturers in the UK to cope with a hard Brexit was to stockpile. Other British companies have stockpiled too, and as a consequence there have not been as many trucks backing up in the UK or France as was feared. But I suspect Japanese companies have also faced few problems because many have adopted the second most popular countermeasure chosen by Japanese manufacturers in the JETRO survey – to reconfigure their supply chains. I estimate at least 30 Japanese companies in the UK have moved their EU supply hubs to the continent over the past few years.

The companies who are suffering the most from Brexit are those smaller British companies who are reliant on supplying EU countries. Up until now they had been able to ship small quantities to EU based customers cost effectively, without any worries about certifications or customs clearance.

Now they have to fill in all kinds of forms and if they are supplying food or livestock, they need health and hygiene certification. Some European logistics companies are refusing to supply the EU from the UK because they cannot cope with the paperwork. They also do not want to send trucks with imports into the UK if they cannot find a load to take back to the EU to justify the expense.

This may all resolve itself eventually, but I suspect that many of the measures that Japanese companies have taken are not temporary and reflect long term trends, as well as the impact of Brexit. For example, the number of Japanese companies manufacturing in the UK has fallen by 22% since 2014, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs data. This is greater than the 11% overall drop in Japanese companies in the UK. Many of them have converted to sales companies and others have become branches of EU parent companies. As a consequence, there has been a 31% increase in the number of branches in the UK, and a 16% drop in the number of incorporated subsidiaries. Companies who have converted to branches include financial services companies ensuring they can continue to trade in the EU.

Japanese companies are continuing to start up in the UK, but they are mostly in the energy and lifestyle sectors, which are very domestic in orientation. Japanese logistics companies may find that their expertise in international goods trade is more in demand from British companies than Japanese companies in the UK from now on.

This article originally appeared in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News in March 2021

Pernille Rudlin interviewed on the history of Japanese companies in the UK and Brexit

Pernille Rudlin is in conversation with Tom Hayes of BEERG (Brussels European Employee Relations Group) on how Japanese companies have responded to Brexit, tracing the progress of UK/EU/Japanese trade relations from Margaret Thatcher’s promotion of Britain as a Japanese gateway to the EU in the early 1980’s, through to the present day.

The video and podcast links are as below

BEERG Byte #32 from Derek Mooney on Vimeo.

Latest Top 30 Japanese companies in UK shows significant divergence

Our latest Top 30 Japanese companies in the UK shows a 1.3% drop overall in employee numbers from 2019 to 2020*, the first fall we have seen in the seven years we have been tracking the Top 30. As most Japanese companies in the UK use an April 1 to March 31 financial year, the fall in employee numbers dates to before COVID-19 pandemic began to have an impact. The small drop masks significant divergences – there were companies whose workforce shrank by over 10% such as Nissan, Honda and Nomura, and also companies which grew significantly, such as NTT and SoftBank.

This tallies with a recent report from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) which reported in March 2021 that whereas automotive sector companies have a bleak outlook on the UK market, manufacturers in sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and foods are far more positive about future expansion in the UK. According to METI, manufacturers represent around 39% of Japanese companies in the UK, the remainder being in the services and wholesale sectors. Services sectors, particularly IT related, would seem to be positive too from our researches, apart from Fujitsu, which has slipped down a further place to being the 4th largest Japanese employer in the UK, having been the largest for many years previously, to 2017/8.

The 96,000 who work for the Top 30 Japanese companies in the UK represent around 55% of the 176,000 (down from 179,000 the previous year) or so people who work for over a 1,000 Japanese companies in the UK, according to our estimates. The METI survey shows that despite the small drop in the numbers employed by the Top 30, larger companies (defined by METI as having over £600m turnover) will have weathered Brexit far more easily than smaller ones, having the resources and networks to set up agents in the EU, stockpile and open up new logistics and warehousing hubs on the Continent.

Certainly the 50 or so Japanese companies that have withdrawn from the UK over 2019-20 have been smaller in size (under 50 employees) and the larger ones who have shut down operations have usually not withdrawn entirely but rather turned their subsidiaries into branches or merged them with another UK based operation.

As we have said for some years now, Brexit has brought about an acceleration of trends which were happening anyway, and precipitated some long overdue tidying up.

FREE PDF DOWNLOAD OF TOP 30 JAPANESE EMPLOYERS IN THE UK 2021

*2020 defined as the year ending 2020, where most of the year was in 2019, ie April 2019 to March 2020 or January 2019 to December 2019.

Japanese companies in the UK are shrinking – is Brexit to blame?

The number of Japanese companies and their employees in the UK is starting to decline. Given that this is against the trend elsewhere in Europe, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that this is a reaction to Brexit.

Brexit has put up barriers to the UK trading within the Single Market, damaging sectors it used to have a comparative advantage in such as automotive manufacturing and financial services. The UK is now left with its global strength in services such as professional services, IT, design, marketing and education. It remains to be seen how much of this strength was also reliant on being part of the Single Market, in terms of being able to sell those services to the EU and benefit from the freedom of movement of the people providing or benefiting from those services. So far, Japanese companies seem to be happy to continue to access these services by basing their regional head offices in the UK, regardless of Brexit, or through acquiring British companies in the services sector.

The decline is from a high base. The UK has the highest stock of Japanese foreign direct investment, the highest number of employees of Japanese companies, and the most resident Japanese nationals in Europe.

The decline in numbers of Japanese companies in the UK is mainly due to a reduction in Japanese companies in the manufacturing and financial sectors. There has also been a drop in the number employed in automotive manufacturing. On top of this, the main driver of the past few years behind the rising employee and company numbers – big-ticket M&As followed by expansion in employee numbers – has been less of a force more recently.

To understand more about the trends in Japanese companies in the UK in terms of investment and employee numbers, how this compares with Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy and what this might mean for the UK in future years, please download our report below:

Japanese companies in the UK

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Authenticity and food

I often ask participants in my cross-cultural training sessions what symbolises home to them. This acts as an ice breaker and allows them to talk about their diverse cultural backgrounds – their Guyanese mother’s curry or Moroccan grandmother’s tagines, even if their own nationality is New Zealander or French.

At a recent session, the Japanese participant said ramen most reminded him of home. We agreed that although it is possible to buy ramen and make it in the UK, ramen at a yatai – in Japan – was what he really meant.

The ramen you can buy in England is made by Nissin, but manufactured in Hungary. I also checked the udon brands available online at Sainsbury’s – one of the UK’s biggest supermarket chains – three were made in China and one in Thailand.

Japanese food is so popular in the UK, there was a Japanese themed week in the current TV series of Great British Bake Off – where someone made a matcha cake and another chef used soy sauce in their cooking.

This caused a controversy on Twitter because the Department for International Trade used the programme as an opportunity to claim that soy sauce would be cheaper in the UK thanks to the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. It turned out, however, that Japan-made soy sauce would only be cheaper in the sense that without the UK-Japan deal, the WTO tariff of 6% would have applied. Now that there is a UK-Japan trade deal, there will be a 0% tariff, as there was between the EU and Japan anyway.

In fact, a large proportion of UK imports of soy sauce comes from the Netherlands – Kikkoman has a factory there – or from Poland, where Associated British Foods brand Blue Dragon has a factory. If there is no UK-EU trade deal, these will be 6% more expensive. Soy sauce from other countries such as China and Malaysia will be cheaper even with a 6% tariff, as previously they attracted the 7.7% EU tariff.

There is a manufacturer of soy sauce in the UK too – Shoda Shoyu acquired a British company Speciality Sauces, with a factory in Wales, in 2000, where they also make miso and mirin.

There are plenty of food snobs in Europe who claim that only soy sauce made in Japan tastes truly authentic, but obviously for every day cooking of the hybrid culture kind that British enjoy, cost performance is important too.

Europeans, including the British, are keen to impose “Geographic Indicators” in their trade deals – that Parma ham must come from Parma, Champagne from Champagne, Stilton cheese from Stilton. But for many of these items, like ramen at a yatai, it is not just the location of manufacture, but the location of consumption that makes it a truly authentic, delicious experience – the atmosphere, the climate, the other food. I did not really appreciate the taste of Guinness until I drank it in a pub by the sea in Ireland, with soda bread, butter and mussels.

This article was originally published in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News on 2nd December 2020

Japanese companies in Ireland

I have been visiting Ireland about once a year recently for business, but also for family reasons. The business side is to provide training for companies there that have been acquired by a Japanese company, or in one case, had acquired a company in Japan via its US parent.

My parents also now live in Ireland. After 25 years’ working in Japan, they initially retired to France but never felt completely at home there. My stepfather’s father was Irish, so he has family in Ireland. It was also easy for my stepfather to get an Irish passport, as an insurance against Brexit so that he can continue to receive free healthcare and a state pension. My mother has become Danish for the same reason – and was able to do so because her father was Danish.

They now live close to my cousins, near the city of Cork, which has become a hotspot for technology companies, particularly American ones. Trend Micro and Alps have factories there, with the latter employing around 850 people making electronic components.

Cork also has a pharmaceuticals and biotech cluster, as does the capital of Ireland, Dublin, which is where Astellas and Takeda* have plants. Astellas employs over 400 people manufacturing raw materials and immunosuppressants and Takeda employs around 300 people making cancer therapies and active ingredients for various drugs. Ireland is the biggest net exporter of pharmaceuticals to the EU.

Multinationals are attracted to Ireland because of the young, well-educated, English speaking workforce, and also the very low corporate tax rate of 12.5%.

Aircraft leasing in particular has benefitted from Ireland’s low tax policies. Nine out of the ten top aircraft lessors are based in Ireland, and over half the world’s airplanes are owned and managed there. Japanese companies such as Orix Aviation and SMBC Aviation Capital have substantial operations in Dublin.

Locating operations in Ireland purely for tax reasons may turn out to be unsustainable in the long term however, as the EU, the OECD and Japan are all taking steps towards international tax cooperation and clamping down on tax avoidance.

The other risk to consider is of course Brexit. The UK forms a “land bridge” to the EU for Ireland. Around 85% of Ireland’s freight trade goes to British ports, and about 40% (around 190,000 freight containers a year) of that is re-exported to elsewhere in the EU.

Pharmaceuticals and electronic components are often shipped by air and various EU shipping companies have started up new routes connecting Ireland to the EU recently. So the main concern is any friction caused to trade that is only between the UK and Ireland.

This is partly why the land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland has become the key issue for resolving Brexit. But the most important concern has nothing to do with business – there are many more families like mine, living in both countries, who do not want to lose the peaceful coexistence that the open border has brought with it.

This article by Pernille Rudlin was originally published in Japanese in the Teikoku Databank News on November 13 2019

*Takeda acquired Shire for $62bn in 2019, who relocated their HQ from the UK to Ireland in 2008 for tax reason. Takeda is now liquidating Shire Holdings in Ireland and transferring the assets to Takeda Ireland, to make repatriation of dividends to Japan easier – presumably avoiding Japan’s tax haven laws.

Video: the Brexit agreement one month on

Pernille Rudlin, Managing Director of Rudlin Consulting and David Henig, Director, UK Trade Policy Project at European Centre for International Political Economy participated in a Japan Society webinar on February 4th 2021, talking and answering questions about the Brexit agreement one month on, the impact on Japanese companies in the UK so far and what the future might hold. A video of the whole session is available below:

Are there 10% or 1% fewer Japanese companies in the UK than five years’ ago? And why?

We covered in a previous post how Japan originated companies continued to increase their presence in Europe – apart from in the UK and Switzerland – over the past 5 years. We used the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs annual data, which showed an 11% decline from 1,064 Japan originated companies in the UK to 951 in 2019.

The other source of data on Japanese investment overseas is the Toyo Keizai annual directory. This shows a 1% decline in Japanese companies in the UK from 2018-9, from 972 to 966. It’s the first drop since at least 2015, numbers having risen 11% 2015-2018, according to the Toyo Keizai totals for the UK. We analysed this further in this post, noting that it’s hard to work out where Toyo Keizai derives the net drop of 6 Japanese companies in the UK from. Their list of the 7 companies which have closed down in the UK 2019 shows that this was mainly due to reorganization of holding companies or merging of companies rather than full withdrawal from the UK. Of the 8 new Japanese companies in the UK in 2019, 5 were indirect investments into energy companies by Nippon Koei, a civil engineering company and 2 were indirect investments by WDI, a Hong Kong originated Dim Sum chain which is registered in Japan.

Subsidiaries turning into branches

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs only breaks down its figures by organisational type and sector, but this does provide further clues. The biggest absolute decrease in numbers is amongst those categorized as a subsidiary incorporated in the UK. There were 480 such companies in the UK in 2014 – this fell 16% to 404 in 2019. Conversely branches of local subsidiaries rose 31% from 179 to 226. This seems to indicate that a fair number of UK incorporated subsidiaries unincorporated and became branches over this period, particularly over 2018-9. This tallies with what we have observed empirically – most famously with Sony Europe and Panasonic Europe becoming branches of EU subsidiaries but also a dozen or so others such as Takeda, Shionogi, Sanden, Fujitsu General, Murata and Alps becoming EU branches.

It looks like Brexit also provided an excuse to do a bit of tidying up, – consolidating multiple subsidiaries into one, for example. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs data also include companies established by a Japanese national with over 10% share in equity in its figures. This number has shrunk by 68 since 2014 to 96. We suspect this may be in part to do with those Japanese nationals becoming permanent residents in the UK or British citizens (other MoFA figures show this group has grown considerably) and therefore no longer included.

Manufacturing turning into wholesaling

Breaking the number down by sector also provides some insights. Japanese companies in the UK who are manufacturers are the biggest group, despite the UK’s heavily services oriented economy. Their numbers have dropped 22% from 2014 to 2019, from 417 to 326. Conversely, the number in the wholesale and retail sector has increased 44% from 112 to 161. The changes in the two sectors may be related, as Oki, Sony DADC, Tamura, Keihin, Nicera, Zeon Chemicals and Maruwa stopped production in the UK during this period but remained as wholesalers in the UK. Financial services companies, traditionally a UK strength, fell by a third from from 114 to 75, which is surprising considering they were active pre-Brexit in acquisitions, but perhaps again reflects some Brexit-related consolidation and divestment. Closures we are aware of include MC Asset Management, Speedloan Finance, Okasan Securities, Nomura Alternative Investment Management, Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.

The sectors where there have been significant jumps in investors show where Japanese corporate interest in the UK now is. The number of Japanese utilities companies investing in the UK rose 120% from 10 to 22 and in the lifestyle and leisure sector by 289% from 9 to 35 – some new entrants we have been aware of the past couple of years in these two categories have been Hakutsuru Sake, MTG, Asahi Premium Brands, JERA Power, Nippon LP Resources, DTM Renewables and Sojitz Energy. The majority of “new” Japanese companies in the UK over the past five years were the result of acquisitions.

Anglo-Japanese partnerships, new and old

I occasionally buy objects in local antiques shops which are a hybrid of Japanese and British design and manufacturing. Most of these date from the late 19^th or early 20^th century when Japonaiserie was at its peak in Europe.

Last year I bought a milk jug decorated with a picture of Mount Fuji, junk boats and thatched houses on it. It’s a very simple traditional British shape and most of the decoration apart from the gold highlights are transfer printed rather than hand decorated.

What caught my eye most of all was that the jug had an unusual metal hinged lid. Inside the lid is stamped “Clarke’s Patented”. It seems the lid had a design patented in the UK by a Mr Clarke, to allow the jug to pour or be filled, while keeping the lid on.

It shows that even in the 19^th century, trade between Japan and the UK wasn’t just a bilateral shipping of objects entirely made and designed in one country. Maybe the mould for the jug was exported to Japan. Was the transfer print made and designed in Japan or the UK? Was the gold highlighting applied in Japan or the UK? Was the metal lid added after the jugs arrived in the UK? It’s possible the entire jug was designed and manufactured in the UK – but was heavily influenced by Japanese export ceramics.

This long history of interaction is why the Free Trade Agreement being negotiated between Japan and the UK is likely to be fairly basic and without much additional positive impact. A deal also needs to be reached quickly to ensure there are no new tariffs after January 1^st 2021 when the Brexit transition period ends. The sector likely to produce the most gains in terms of reducing tariffs is food and agriculture, which usually causes the most difficulties and prolongs trade negotiations – so it seems likely this part will not roll over from the EU Japan EPA for the time being.

The UK proposal reflects this, emphasising British small and medium enterprises exporting to Japan, access to Japanese government procurement and the free flow of data.

Government procurement can also be very controversial. Many people in the UK are nervous about a trade agreement with the USA resulting in American healthcare companies being able to push for the privatisation of the UK’s national health service. There is also plenty of concern about data flows and Chinese investment in UK ICT infrastructure.

The chief of the UN has said the world is facing the biggest crisis since World War II. For Japan and the UK the post-war period was one of austerity but also innovation. Companies such as Sony and Honda were founded in Japan and the UK established the welfare state – the nationalisation of the health service, transport and energy.

So let us hope this crisis will bring about mutually beneficial new Japan-UK partnerships in social infrastructure and services, as well as in technology start-ups.

This article was originally published in Japanese in the Teikoku News, on 8th July 2020.

Category: Brexit